The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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The Climate Bet is 6 years old, and temperatures are still going up, and down

without comments

Mostly down. In the course of the 72 months of the bet to date, the global mean temperature fell or remained flat compared to the previous month for 41 months, or 57% of the time. (In case you’re wondering, the UAH series records only 2 occasions over this period on which the temperature did not change from the previous month.)

We’re not sure how the ups-and-downs of the global temperature over these last six years accord with what Mr Gore had in mind when he issued his warning of an immanent and catastophic “tipping point”, but we know that his chances of winning the Climate Bet against the no-trend forecast proposed by Professor Armstrong have receded as the life of The Bet has progressed.

See the chart to the right with the latest (December 2013) data.

Written by admin

January 9th, 2014 at 7:16 am