The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Temperatures remained warmer than average in January 2020

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly was 0.56°C in January, which was the same as it was in December of last year and not much different from the 0.55°C in November. In the 145 months of the Climate Bet so far, the global temperature anomaly has been 0.56°C or warmer for only nine months, albeit all of those months occurred after 2015.

An inspection of the Whole-Earth Thermometer with the updated data, reveals that temperatures go down just about as often as they go up. The figures for the life of The Bet so far are 47% down, and 51% up.

For the entire UAH temperature anomaly series of 494 months to date, the anomaly was higher than it was in the previous month 50% of the time, and the direction of change in the anomaly reversed for 55% of months. The correlation between the direction of change in the month with the direction of change in the previous month was negative 0.33.

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February 11th, 2020 at 4:45 pm