The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Results to September ’09: A warm month but no cigar for Gore

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The September global mean temperature anomaly was +0.42C, a relatively warm month as the updated results graph in the right column shows. Armstrong was a clear winner for the 2008 year; with nine months of 2009 gone, what are the prospects of Gore winning 2009? With the average temperature anomaly for the year-to-date at +0.23C clearly below both Armstrong’s and Gore’s year-to-date forecasts of +0.28C and +0.33C respectively, Armstrong is looking good to win 2009. For Gore to win 2009 now, the average temperature anomaly for the remaining three months of 2009 would have to equal or exceed +0.535C. This has happened on only two previous occasions in the last 31 years, February to April and May to July 1998, during the warmest part of a strong El Nino cycle.

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October 10th, 2009 at 2:18 am

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