The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Paper presented at the ISF 2009 in Hong Kong on "Forecasting for climate policy: C02, global temperatures, and alarms"

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper co-authored with Kesten Green, Andreas Graefe, and Willie Soon at the International Symposium on Forecasting in June that examined some of the lessons for climate policy from evidence-based forecasting. The authors described the lack of scientific long-term forecasts of global temperatures, the impacts of temperature changes, and the effects of policies. The paper explained the need for simple methods and conservative forecasts in the face of uncertainty and complexity and pointed out that simple no-change benchmark forecasts are sufficiently accurate for policy decisions. In contrast, simple causal models with CO2 as the policy variable are not credible.

Prediction markets for temperatures in three and ten years time agree that the no-change forecast is the more likely outcome than the IPCC 0.03C per annum forecast. Finally, similar (analogous) alarms in the past identified by the authors and others turned out to be false alarms. The slides for the talk are available as a PowerPoint file and as a PDF file.

Written by mzfeldm

July 19th, 2009 at 4:18 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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