The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

Warmer temperatures persist over 2019 to July

without comments

UAH’s measure of global average temperatures has not above the Al Gore/IPCC warming projection since February 2017, but the monthly mean temperatures this year have nevertheless remained closer to that projection than to the no-trend forecast in all but one of the seven months. For the 139 months of the Climate Bet so far, the monthly average temperature has been warmer than the warming projection for fewer than 19 percent of months, and has been below the no-trend forecast for 41 percent of months.

To see the updated Whole Earth Thermometer, click on the chart image on the top right of this page.

Written by admin

August 17th, 2019 at 4:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

June 2019 warmer than May, on average

without comments

At 0.47°C, June’s global temperature anomaly was up from May’s, and was the warmest since October 2017, 20 months ago. The June figure was also slightly warmer than the 2007 Bet base year’s maximum monthly anomaly of 0.43°C.

The experience of regions varied considerably, however, as US readers will likely have noticed. The anomaly for the 48 contiguous U.S. states was -0.64°C, which was even cooler than May, the previous month. Australia’s anomaly, while positive, was cooler than the previous 3 months, as was the case with the entire southern hemisphere over the land.

The northern polar region experienced a positive anomaly (0.90°C), but that was cooler than those of the 4 previous months, while the southern polar region experienced a negative anomaly (-0.39°C) that was cooler than the anomalies of the 8 previous months.

The updated chart (Whole Earth Thermometer), summarising the progress of The Climate Bet so far, can be inspected by clicking on the thumbnail chart to the top right of the screen.

Written by admin

July 5th, 2019 at 11:26 am

“Do we face dangerous global warming?”

without comments

Was the title of a talk that Scott Armstrong gave to his fellow Lehigh University Graduating Class of 1959 at their 60th Reunion on June 7. The invited talk addressed the question of whether the alarm over dangerous manmade global warming is a valid scientific claim, and presents findings from Scott’s research with Kesten Green. A copy of the slides for the talk is available from ResearchGate, here.

Written by admin

June 11th, 2019 at 1:44 pm

April 2019 warmer, again

without comments

The global mean UAH lower troposphere temperature anomaly ticked up again in April. So far, 2019 global monthly averages have all been warmer than the warmest month in 2018. For a larger chart showing the history of the Climate Bet, including the latest data, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

Written by admin

May 13th, 2019 at 11:30 am

March quarter 2019 temperatures warmer than 2018

without comments

The UAH lower troposphere temperature global average anomalies for the first three months of 2019 have been higher than at any stage during 2018 to the extent that they were slightly closer to the 3°C-per-century warming projection from the IPCC than they were to the no-change (no-trend) forecast. By contrast, every month of 2018 was closer to the no-trend forecast. Over the 135 month term to-date of the extended Climate Bet, the global average temperature has been closer to the no-change forecast than to the IPCC “dangerous warming” forecast for more than 70% of months.

Written by admin

April 12th, 2019 at 11:51 am

February 2019 sees little change

without comments

The February 2019 global temperature anomaly figure (lower troposphere) from UAH has been added to the Climate Bet chart—aka Whole-Earth Thermometer—to the right. To see the chart in more detail and with the most recent 3 years of data, click on the chart image.

Written by admin

March 21st, 2019 at 8:42 am

Posted in Uncategorized

A warmer start to 2019 sees January a winning month for Mr Gore

without comments

At 0.37°C, the January 2019 anomaly was the highest since since December 2017. Just above the mid-point between the no-change from the 2007 average forecast of 0.159°C and the IPCC/Gore 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming forecast for January of 0.505°C, the month counts as a win for Mr Gore.

So far, the monthly wins tally stands at:

dangerous warming trend: 40 months
no trend (Armstrong):         93 months.

Over the course of the Bet to date, the dangerous warming forecast has never been the better forecast for as many as 40% of months. The no-trend, no need for policy action, forecast remains the best bet, having won just under 70% of months so far.

Written by admin

February 12th, 2019 at 2:10 am

2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise

without comments

The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C.

The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C, and are all well within the base year range of -0.04°C to +0.43°C.

Interestingly, in the now 11 years since 2007, monthly global mean temperature anomalies have fallen outside the 2007 range on only 32 of the 132 months, with nearly half of those months (15) falling below the 2007 minimum.

The 2018 year was cooler than any of the previous three years, and cooler also than 2010. In other words, 2018 was cooler than 40% of the previous ten years.

So how do things stand with the extended “Bet” between the no-change model forecasts and the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming projection (standing in for Mr Gore’s “tipping point” warnings)?

After 11 years, the Bet’s summary measure—the cumulative absolute error of the warming projection relative to that of the no-change forecasts—is 1.211. In other words, the errors of the “dangerous” warming projection have been 21.1% larger then the errors of the forecasts from a simple model that assumes that we do not know enough about the causes of climate change to make predictions over policy-relevant horizons that are more accurate than an extrapolation of the previous year’s average into the distant future.

Note also that unbiased forecasts would be expected be warmer than the actual temperature as often as they were cooler. To date, the actual temperature has been equal to or warmer than the IPCC/Gore projection for only 18.2% of months. That figure compares with the 40.9% of months that the temperature anomaly has been less than or equal to no-change projection.

For the latest data and chart summarising the Bet, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer on the top right of site.

Written by admin

January 7th, 2019 at 2:10 pm

“…new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change show humans are not causing a climate crisis”

without comments

A new 1,000-page report titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change was presented on December 4 in Katowice, Poland. (In case you missed it, Katowice is where the many delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change gathered from far and wide to argue for climate alarm.)

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels assesses the costs and benefits of the use of fossil fuels (principally coal, oil, and natural gas) by reviewing scientific and economic literature on organic chemistry, climate science, public health, economic history, human security, and theoretical studies based on integrated assessment models (IAMs). It is the fifth volume in the Climate Change Reconsidered series and, like the preceding volumes, it focuses on research overlooked or ignored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The chapters of the report are:

Part 1: Foundations
1. Environmental Economics
2. Climate Science

Part II: Benefits of Fossil Fuels
3. Human Prosperity
4. Human Health Benefits
5. Environmental Benefits

Part III: Costs of Fossil Fuels
6. Air Quality
7. Human Security
8. Cost-Benefit Analysis

A press release, Summary for Policymakers, the report itself as one large file, and individual chapters are available to download from the NIPCC site, here.

Written by admin

December 7th, 2018 at 2:15 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

without comments

The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

Written by admin

December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm