The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Most people think Al Gore would lose the Global Warming Challenge

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From July 17 through July 30, visitors to were invited to predict who would win the Global Warming Challenge that Scott Armstrong has proposed to Al Gore. We told visitors:

Mr. Gore has made his case in his book and movie both titled An Inconvenient Truth. Scott Armstrong’s case is that climate forecasters are unfamiliar with scientific forecasting methods, and their consequent inappropriate use of complex models provides invalid forecasts. Forecasts from climate models are therefore likely to be less accurate that the naïve forecast that global temperatures will not change. The winner of the Global Warming Challenge will be the party with the smallest forecast error over the next 10 years.

And asked them:

Assume that Al Gore can spare five minutes at some time in the future to accept Scott Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. Who do you think would win?

There were 85 respondents from around the world: 82% thought Scott Armstrong would win the challenge, 12% believed Al Gore would win, and 6% believed the Challenge was too close to call.

The winner of a signed copy of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting, has been emailed.

Written by climatebet

August 2nd, 2007 at 2:15 pm

Posted in survey,the challenge

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