The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

March 2020 cooler than IPCC/Gore projection for first time since October

without comments

As expected from the history of the series, the UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly declined in March. The decline took the temperature to a level last seen in October.

Why expected? Considering the whole UAH series (496 months less 2), the correlation between the month-to-month change in temperature and the previous month-to-month change (the lagged series) is -0.3322. The negative sign indicating that if the most recent month’s temperature anomaly is up on the previous one, the next month is more likely to be down, and vice versa.

How likely is a reversal of direction between months? The probability is about 0.55, based on the 494 available observations to date.

Finally, the temperature anomaly increased in slightly less than half of 495 months or 49.5%.

To see a large version of The Climate Bet chart and data, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer chart image at the top right of the page.

Written by admin

April 21st, 2020 at 11:15 am