The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Global temp warmer than 3°C/century trend for 4th month

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Global mean  temperatures have been warmer than the IPCC/Gore 3°C per century extrapolation for the four months to February 2020. All but one month (May 2019) in the last 14 months has been closer to the IPCC extrapolation than to the Green, Armstrong and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast.

Does that mean that the global warming extrapolation is now ahead in the extended, 20-year, Climate Bet?

No, it does not. The cumulative monthly error from betting on a 3°C-per-century extrapolation from the 2007 annual average temperature anomaly is more than 5% greater than the error from betting on no change.

The relative error of the warming extrapolation is the lowest it has been for 109 months, but it has only been less than 1.0—warming more accurate than no-change—for two months of the 146 months of the extended Bet so far, back in 2010.

Written by admin

March 12th, 2020 at 3:27 pm