The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Durango Herald: Roger Cohen Bets $5,000

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Retired physicist Roger Cohen offers a public wager of $5,000 that the Earth will be cooler in 10 years, setting Feb. 9th as the deadline for individuals to take him up on the challenge; he cites Armstrong’s $10,000 challenge to Gore as inspiration. Click here for Durango Herald’s full article.

Below are details of the challenge from Roger Cohen:

Herald readers have had the opportunity to discern the flimsiness of the climate catastrophe case and to witness catastrophe advocates’ anger against those who disagree and their reluctance to debate technical issues. If advocates remain confident of impending climate catastrophe and firm in their belief that worldwide government interventions are urgently needed, they will seize the opportunity I offer here.

  • I offer a public wager of $5,000 that the Earth will be cooler in 10 years.
  • The wager is open to one individual or group of individuals. If more than one individual or group is interested, I will choose one and notify the others.
  • The determining metric will be simple: whether the global average temperature for the year 2017 is higher or lower than 2007, as determined by the authoritative “HadCRUT3” data set (Climatic Research Unit, U.K.), or its successor.
  • Funds will be deposited in an escrow account. Interest earned will be paid to the escrow agent.
  • There will be a simple written agreement between the parties (I will pay legal counsel to prepare), and the parties will sign an escrow agreement relating to the deposited funds.
  • My winnings will be donated to a local charitable organization promoting science education.

The wager is aimed at focusing attention on the critical issue: future climate and our ability to predict it. The United Nation’s climate panel relies on computer models for its projections and predicts that the Earth will likely be warmer in 10 years. The wager involves actual global climate data – no computer predictions, cherry-picked anecdotes, appeals to “majority opinion,” distortions of fact, or unfounded proclamations.

No excuses. If the amount is too high, advocates can run a fundraiser. If it seems low, propose a different amount. Want a different data set? Propose one. Trying to divert attention to those “nasty energy companies” and similar smokescreens will only emphasize the weakness of your position.

Parties should respond by mail – P.O. Box 3162, Durango 81302 – within 20 days of this publication. If no one responds by that time, there will be no wager.

Roger W. Cohen, Durango

Written by climatebet

January 28th, 2008 at 6:06 pm

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