The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Cool July: Temperatures, they are a-changin’… back

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The global average temperature anomaly was below the 2007 average again in July 2013 after a warmer June. Does the average temperature seem to go up-and-down a lot to you? Well, it turns out that the correlation between the change in the average monthly temperature and the change in the previous month is negative (-0.3) over the period relevant to the climate bet, 2007-to-date. In other words, an increase in the monthly temperature anomaly tends to be followed by a decrease the next month, and vice versa. As folks (and the no-change forecast) say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The latest Climate Bet chart is posted to the right.

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August 7th, 2013 at 12:37 am