The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘survey’ Category

Climate consensus? What climate consensus?

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An oft repeated climate forecasting claim is that 97% of scientists agree that there is a problem of dangerous manmade global warming and that human emissions of carbon dioxide must be drastically curtailed in order to avoid disastrous consequences. If that claim sounds unlikely to you, as well as being irrelevant, you are right. Professor Ross McKitrick—a scientific Toto to the climate-alarmist Wizard of Oz—dissects the claim and exposes its lack of substance in his May 11 article in the Financial Post titled, “The con in consensus“.

Written by admin

May 17th, 2015 at 4:34 am

Most people think Al Gore would lose the Global Warming Challenge

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From July 17 through July 30, visitors to were invited to predict who would win the Global Warming Challenge that Scott Armstrong has proposed to Al Gore. We told visitors:

Mr. Gore has made his case in his book and movie both titled An Inconvenient Truth. Scott Armstrong’s case is that climate forecasters are unfamiliar with scientific forecasting methods, and their consequent inappropriate use of complex models provides invalid forecasts. Forecasts from climate models are therefore likely to be less accurate that the naïve forecast that global temperatures will not change. The winner of the Global Warming Challenge will be the party with the smallest forecast error over the next 10 years.

And asked them:

Assume that Al Gore can spare five minutes at some time in the future to accept Scott Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. Who do you think would win?

There were 85 respondents from around the world: 82% thought Scott Armstrong would win the challenge, 12% believed Al Gore would win, and 6% believed the Challenge was too close to call.

The winner of a signed copy of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting, has been emailed.

Written by climatebet

August 2nd, 2007 at 2:15 pm

Posted in survey,the challenge

Survey Closed: Pick the Outcome of the Global Warming Challenge

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Sorry, the survey has closed.
Results will be announced in the coming week.

All poll participants were entered into a random drawing for a signed paperback edition of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.

Written by climatebet

July 30th, 2007 at 1:25 am

Posted in survey,the challenge