The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘kevin trenberth’ Category

News Coverage

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Special Report with Brit Hume recently covered the challenge with the piece “One Expert Is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore Is Wrong About Global Warming.” Interview by FOX News Channel’s Matthew Hill.

Armstrong says he hasn’t gotten a response yet — and Gore’s office did not return a call from us asking for reaction to the challenge.

• Armstrong was also featured on American Family Radio News. Interview was done by Jim Brown, education reporter for American Family Radio News.

• Australia’s Courier Mail featured Dr. Kevin Trenberth as well as Armstrong and Green’s work in the article “Forecasts all up in the air.” Article by Bob Carter.

In a paper [presented] at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting in New York this week, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green audit the relevant chapter in the IPCC’s latest report. They find that “in apparent contradiction to claims by some climate experts that the IPCC provides ‘projections’ and not ‘forecasts’, the word ‘forecast’ and its derivatives occurred 37 times, and ‘predict’ and its derivatives occur 90 times” in the chapter.

Are you waiting for Gore’s response too? Why not digg us? 

Written by climatebet

July 1st, 2007 at 7:33 pm

Auditing Public Policy Forecasting: Climate Change, Gun Control, and Other Issues

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International Symposium on Forecasting

At one of the concluding sessions of the 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) titled “Auditing Public Policy Forecasting: Climate Change, Gun Control, and Other Issues”, Scott Armstrong, Paul Goodwin, and John Lott each gave presentations during the hour-long session. Below is information on the speakers as well as talk summaries.

Scott Armstrong on Climate Change
Professor of Marketing, University of Pennsylvania
International Symposium on Forecasting

Click for a brief video of Armstrong’s talk.

Presented his and Kesten Green’s findings from the paper, “Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts,” where they applied forecasting principles to Section 8 of the 2007 IPCC report, revealing that scientists did not adhere to proper forecasting procedure. These critical violations of forecasting principles led them to conclude that they have been unable to identify scientific forecasts to support global warming. The presentation concluded with an explanation of the challenge to Al Gore, as well as

Paul Goodwin on Business Forecasting
Professor of Management Science, University of Bath (UK)
International Symposium on Forecasting
How do models fit in with business forecasting? Goodwin explained how the use of ‘the system’ and high-tech software analytics creates models that are merely used to support desired forecasts, instead of the back-and-forth relationship that should exist between models and forecasters’ interests. He left the audience with the question: in a world where billions of dollars are at stake, how to firms stay afloat if they only see what they want to see?

John Lott on Gun Control
Senior Research Scientist, University of Maryland
International Symposium on Forecasting
Controversial economist John Lott concluded the session by highlighting the strength of emotion against the facts, present in most major public policy debates. His issue? Gun control. Lott explained why we are much more likely to see violent gun crimes in the mass media, and why we rarely hear of the use of guns in self-defense or to ward off criminals. Though the first is much more memorable, the latter is far more common. These facts must be used when making public policy decisions that are emotionally charged.

The session concluded with questions and discussion, as well as this impromptu photo of Armstrong and Trenberth encouraging scientists to facilitate discussion across opinions:
International Symposium on Forecasting

Written by climatebet

June 28th, 2007 at 2:08 pm

Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Keynote Presentation at ISF ‘07

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Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, gave a keynote presentation June 26th, 2007, at the 27th International Symposium for Forecasting. He was a lead author of the 1995, 2001, and 2007 Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. For a full list of credentials, please visit Dr. Trenberth’s homepage.

Trenberth’s keynote presentation was titled Climate and weather forecasting: Issues and prospects for prediction of climate on multiple time scales. His full presentation is available at his website. The following is an abstract excerpt:

In contrast to weather, which involves the evolution of the atmosphere, climate involves the entire climate system and its forcings. The climate system includes the atmosphere and oceans as fluid components, and all aspects of the land surface including vegetation and hydrology, and the cryosphere. The forcings include influences external to the climate system, such as the sun or human activities. While prediction of the atmosphere is inherently limited by chaotic developments, its systematic interaction with other components of the climate system and forcings enables patterns or the statistics of atmospheric behavior to have some predictability.

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Written by climatebet

June 27th, 2007 at 2:42 am