The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Armstrong Calls for Collaboration between Climate Scientists and Forecasting Researchers

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Although climate scientists have extensive climate knowledge and are aided by computer models, their long-term forecasts are essentially their judgments of what will happen in the decades to come. Unstructured judgments are used to determine the structure and much of the content of climate models. Unstructured judgments are also used to accept or reject model outputs.

Green and Armstrong (2007) found that climate modelers do not use evidence-based principles to forecast. In fact, they violate many principles of forecasting.

One solution to this problem is to combine what is known about forecasting methods with what climate scientists know. Knowledge about forecasting is provided at http://forecastingprinciples.com. In addition, the site lists many experts in forecasting methods who are available as consultants.

Written by climatebet

September 10th, 2007 at 2:54 pm

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