The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Al Gore’s forecasts perform poorly compared to assuming temperatures won’t change

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Some things are hard to forecast. In such cases forecasters find it hard to beat a simple prediction that things will not change. When Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon tested the forecast of global average temperatures apparently preferred by Al Gore (the IPCC’s +0.03C per year scenario) for the years of exponential CO2 emissions growth from 1851 to 1975, they found the IPCC “forecast” errors were more than seven times bigger than the no-change benchmark errors. Their International Journal of Forecasting paper is available, here.

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October 25th, 2009 at 8:41 pm

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