The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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The Climate Bet site was originally created to chronicle Scott Armstrong’s $20,000 Global Warming Challenge to Al Gore to provide better forecasts than the no-change model. While the challenge still stands, The site now promotes the use of proper scientific forecasting methods for long-term global climate change policy. It is affiliated with and the Forecasting Principles site.

After the “bet” concludes at the end of 2017, the site will continue to monitor the accuracy of the evidence-based “no-long term change model” against the IPCC forecasts. This is in line with the original objective of the site, which is to draw the attention of policy makers and concerned citizens to the accumulation of evidence on the predictive validity of alternative climate forecasting models. The ten-year validation period in the “Bet” is much too short to assess long-term trends. (Given that natural changes can drift up or down on average for several years, the original expectation was that Armstrong had only a 2/3 chance of winning the 10-year bet even if the no-change model provides the more-accurate longer term forecasts.)


This site was designed in consultation with Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

Dr. Kesten C. Green, of the University of South Australia, serves as an adviser and is the webmaster of the site.

This site was formerly maintained by Kelly Jin, a University of Pennsylvania economics student.

Written by climatebet

June 17th, 2007 at 1:53 pm

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