The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for June, 2020

May temperatures jag up as warmer spell continues for 12 straight months

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly (lower troposphere) for May 2020 was again closer to the IPCC-Gore “dangerous” warming projection from the 2007 average than to the Green-Armstrong-Soon forecast of no-change (trend). The absolute error from predicting dangerous warming remains greater than that of the error from no change over the more than 12-years of the Climate Bet so far, however, being 2.6% greater.

The May figure was yet another reversal in the direction of change (“trend”) from one month to the next. That is the norm. Over the now more than 40 years of the UAH temperature series, the correlation between the monthly change in temperature anomaly and the change in the previous month was negative (-0.33). To put it another way, for more than 55% of months, the direction of change from the previous month was the opposite of direction of change a month before.

For the latest chart and data, click on the World Thermometer image toward the top right of the page.

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June 9th, 2020 at 7:27 pm