The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for May, 2020

April 2020 warmish, but coolest since July last year

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April’s anomaly remained above halfway between the no-change—from 2007 annual average—forecast and the IPCC/Gore +3°C per century warming projection, and so with its smaller error counts as a win for the month for the projection.

The recent run of warmer global average temperatures has pushed the cumulative relative absolute error to 1.039—which means that the warming projection’s cumulative absolute error is 3.9% larger than that of the no-change forecast—the lowest it has been since December 2010, 3 years into The Bet.

As a consequence of the run of warmer temperatures, The Bet is more alive now than it has been for about a decade. For example, if the UAH global mean temperature anomaly turns out to be close to the red IPCC/Gore warming line for each of the next three months, the cumulative error from that projection would be smaller that that of the no-change forecast.

See the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart at the top right for the latest figures.

Written by admin

May 8th, 2020 at 2:43 pm