The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for July, 2018

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

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The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

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July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

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Science, and forecasting climate

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, CO, on 19 June titled “Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?”. A pdf copy of the slides is available from ResearchGate, here.

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July 5th, 2018 at 12:50 pm