The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for September, 2017

August 2017 warmth keeps the Climate Bet interesting

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After two cooler months that were closer to Professor Armstrong’s bet on the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast than to the Gore-IPCC manmade global warming projection, the UAH’s August global average temperature “anomaly” was, at +0.41°C, close to the warming projection’s 0.46°C for the month.

The August figure means that temperatures have been closer to the Gore-IPCC projection for four of the eight months of 2017 so far, and the absolute error for that period has been nearly 14 percent smaller than the no-trend forecast error.

With only four months of the ten-year bet remaining, we look forward to presenting detailed analysis of the full period of The Bet in the New Year.

To see the updated chart in large, click on the image at the top of the right hand column.

Written by admin

September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 am

Posted in Uncategorized