The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for November, 2013

Is Mr Gore’s red line a biased forecast?

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With October 2013’s global mean temperature data in, we now have 70 months of evidence on the accuracy of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s alarming warming forecast of temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.03ºC per annum. If Mr Gore’s forecast were valid and unbiased, we would expect actual temperatures to be higher than his forecast roughly half of the time and lower roughly half of the time. We checked the record of The Bet. It turns out that, to date, the actual global mean temperature has been higher than Mr Gore’s forecast less than one-quarter (23%) of the time. By contrast, the measured temperature has been warmer than the no-change benchmark, Professor Armstrong’s bet, 46% percent of the time; very close to the ideal of 50%. The updated chart is to the right.

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November 17th, 2013 at 11:26 pm