The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for October, 2013

LA Times censors skeptics

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The LA Times letters editor has apparently decided that they know The Truth in scientific matters and will not let anything else bescmirch their pages. We will let someone else check the Times record in this endeavour. In the meantime, Scott Armstrong has written an op-ed asking who benefits from such a policy. His article, titled “Los Angeles Times endorses censorship with ban on letters from climate skeptics” is here.

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October 20th, 2013 at 7:12 am

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Financial Post gives voice to scientific climate forecasting

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“There are no scientific forecasts of dangerous global warming” shouts a new article in the Financial Post. Readers of this blog know that already, but will likely want to read what the op-ed titled “Climate forecast: All’s well, despite what the IPCC says” by Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon has to say about the implications for government policy. It has already attracted lively discussion. The article is here.

The authors claim to provide the only scientific forecast of long-term climate, namely the naive no-change or no-trend forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s notional bet with Mr Gore. The forecast was originally published in 2009, and the International Journal of Forecasting article can be found here. The authors’ current working paper investigating possible improvements to climate forecasting for policy makers is here.

Dance of temperatures sees warmer September

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The September global temperature anomaly was the highest it’s been since January, and is close to Mr Gore’s “forecast” for the month. The balance of the bet remains firmly in Professor Armstrong’s favour, however: The error of the red-hot alarmist projection is to date nearly 20% higher than the error from the scientific cool-green no-trend forecast. See the updated chart (color coded) and table to the right.

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October 10th, 2013 at 3:47 am

New scientific report on climate change

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The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) has released a new report on the science of climate change: Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science. The key takeaway messages are (1) the human impact on climate is very small and (2) any change in temperatures that might be occurring or will occur in the future is so small that it will not be noticed against the climate’s entirely natural variability.

As part of the NIPCC’s process for preparing this volume, scores of scientists from around the world evaluated the most up-to-date research on the physical science of climate change. This report is at least as comprehensive and authoritative as the reports of the United Nations-funded Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) … and the NIPCC report is faithful to the scientific method. Whereas the mission of the IPCC is to find a human impact on climate change and thus justify government control of greenhouse gas emissions and our economy, the NIPCC has no agenda other than discovering the truth about climate change.

Section 1.1.1 of the report addresses forecasting principles and methods, and was co-authored by J Scott Armstrong and Kesten C Green. It is on p.14 of the Chapter 1 of the report, which is available here.