The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for January, 2011

After 3 years of the climate bet, temperatures are back to the 2007 average

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After an excursion into cooler than average weather followed by an excursion into warmer than average weather, three years into the ten-year climate bet temperatures are back to the 2007 average: the level predicted by Armstrong (see graph in right menu). Armstrong’s forecast was more accurate than Gore’s for 20 of the 36 months to date, and two of the three years. The bet is decided in favor of the forecast that delivers the smallest absolute error over the ten years or 120 months of the bet. With 36 months gone, Gore’s total error so far is 6% smaller than Armstrong’s. With 84 months to go, the bet will continue to be interesting given that ten years is such a short period on which to base a climate bet.

Note: We have had difficulty getting access to site to bring you updates over the last few months, for which we apologize. We have now secured access and do not expect further problems as we bring you updates on the bet each month, and occasional other news relevant to the bet.

Written by admin

January 17th, 2011 at 4:41 am