The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

April 2020 warmish, but coolest since July last year

without comments

April’s anomaly remained above halfway between the no-change—from 2007 annual average—forecast and the IPCC/Gore +3°C per century warming projection, and so with its smaller error counts as a win for the month for the projection.

The recent run of warmer global average temperatures has pushed the cumulative relative absolute error to 1.039—which means that the warming projection’s cumulative absolute error is 3.9% larger than that of the no-change forecast—the lowest it has been since December 2010, 3 years into The Bet.

As a consequence of the run of warmer temperatures, The Bet is more alive now than it has been for about a decade. For example, if the UAH global mean temperature anomaly turns out to be close to the red IPCC/Gore warming line for each of the next three months, the cumulative error from that projection would be smaller that that of the no-change forecast.

See the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart at the top right for the latest figures.

Written by admin

May 8th, 2020 at 2:43 pm

March 2020 cooler than IPCC/Gore projection for first time since October

without comments

As expected from the history of the series, the UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly declined in March. The decline took the temperature to a level last seen in October.

Why expected? Considering the whole UAH series (496 months less 2), the correlation between the month-to-month change in temperature and the previous month-to-month change (the lagged series) is -0.3322. The negative sign indicating that if the most recent month’s temperature anomaly is up on the previous one, the next month is more likely to be down, and vice versa.

How likely is a reversal of direction between months? The probability is about 0.55, based on the 494 available observations to date.

Finally, the temperature anomaly increased in slightly less than half of 495 months or 49.5%.

To see a large version of The Climate Bet chart and data, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer chart image at the top right of the page.

Written by admin

April 21st, 2020 at 11:15 am

Global temp warmer than 3°C/century trend for 4th month

without comments

Global mean  temperatures have been warmer than the IPCC/Gore 3°C per century extrapolation for the four months to February 2020. All but one month (May 2019) in the last 14 months has been closer to the IPCC extrapolation than to the Green, Armstrong and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast.

Does that mean that the global warming extrapolation is now ahead in the extended, 20-year, Climate Bet?

No, it does not. The cumulative monthly error from betting on a 3°C-per-century extrapolation from the 2007 annual average temperature anomaly is more than 5% greater than the error from betting on no change.

The relative error of the warming extrapolation is the lowest it has been for 109 months, but it has only been less than 1.0—warming more accurate than no-change—for two months of the 146 months of the extended Bet so far, back in 2010.

Written by admin

March 12th, 2020 at 3:27 pm

Temperatures remained warmer than average in January 2020

without comments

The UAH global average temperature anomaly was 0.56°C in January, which was the same as it was in December of last year and not much different from the 0.55°C in November. In the 145 months of the Climate Bet so far, the global temperature anomaly has been 0.56°C or warmer for only nine months, albeit all of those months occurred after 2015.

An inspection of the Whole-Earth Thermometer with the updated data, reveals that temperatures go down just about as often as they go up. The figures for the life of The Bet so far are 47% down, and 51% up.

For the entire UAH temperature anomaly series of 494 months to date, the anomaly was higher than it was in the previous month 50% of the time, and the direction of change in the anomaly reversed for 55% of months. The correlation between the direction of change in the month with the direction of change in the previous month was negative 0.33.

Written by admin

February 11th, 2020 at 4:45 pm

Claims 2019 warmest Australian year inconsistent with satellite record

without comments

The UAH global average  temperature anomaly relative to the 1981 to 2010 average was 0.56°C in December, up from 0.55°C the previous month. The 2019 average was the second warmest year in the 12 years of The Bet so far, as is shown by the blue stepped line in the “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart on the top-right of this page.

While the global anomaly for 2019 was closer to the IPCC-Gore 3°C-per-century warming extrapolation line than to the Green-Armstrong-Soon no-trend forecast, it was below the warming line, as it has remained for all but two of the Bet’s 12 years to date.

The Climate Bet is concerned with the global average temperature anomaly, but local and regional anomalies do not follow in lock step, and sometimes differ markedly. The claim by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) that “2019 was … the warmest … year on record for Australia … since consistent national temperature records began in 1910” is therefore not inconsistent with what was a relatively unremarkable year in the global record.

But how does the BOM’s warmest-on-record claim—based on smattering of “homogenized” land-based readings—stack up against the UAH satellite (lower troposphere) data for Australia?

Not very well, it turns out.

According the UAH data, 2019 was only the fourth warmest year in Australia in the 41 years of the UAH satellite temperature anomaly record. The warmest year in the UAH data was 2017, with an average anomaly of 0.71°C. The figure for 2019 was 0.58°C. The years 2016 and 1998 were also warmer for Australia.

Roy Spencer—one of the researchers behind the UAH data—has provided an analysis of the relationship between claims of anthropogenic global warming and measured temperature, precipitation, and Australian bush fires.

November 2019 sees global temperature above Bet warming line

without comments

With the release of the UAH November 2019 global temperature anomaly, there have been 28 months in which the anomaly equaled or exceeded the 3°C-per-century warming trend line projected from the 2007 Bet base year average. That compares with the 57 months in which the anomaly has been less than or equal to the scientific no-change forecast proposed by Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) and the basis of Scott Armstrong’s challenge to Al Gore to bet on forecasts of global temperatures.

Those figures give a sense of how modest the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century warming trend is compared to month-to-month variations over the 143 months (nearly 12 years) of the extended Bet so far. The 28 months of temperature anomalies greater than or equal to the warming trend account for nearly 20% of months, while close to 40% of months have been cooler than the 2007 base year average.

For the latest data, click on the “Whole Earth Thermometer” toward the top right of this page.

Written by admin

December 13th, 2019 at 9:27 am

September 2019 anomaly above IPCC/Gore warming for first time in 2 years

without comments

September recorded the warmest global mean temperature anomaly since October of 2017. If the months of the fourth quarter of 2019 stay on the warmer side, 2019 could be the fourth year in twelve in which the annual average global temperature anomaly has been closer to a 3°C-per-century warming trend than to no-change. For the updated chart of progress of the Climate Bet, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer image on the top right of the screen.

Written by Heidi Mercer

October 12th, 2019 at 10:52 am

No change in global average temperatures from July to August

without comments

The UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly remained unchanged in August 2019 from the previous month at 0.38°C. The month counts as the seventh win for Mr Gore out of the eight months of this year so far—the 44th win out of the 140 months of the extended bet, so far.

With no change in the average, it is interesting to observe to what extent the regional averages changed. Average temperature anomalies in the tropics fell from 0.61°C to 0.37°C over the land and rose from 0.40°C to 0.44°C over the sea. The corresponding figures for the northern polar region were a rise from 0.25°C to 0.53°C and a fall from 0.42°C to 0.33°C, and for the southern polar region were a fall from 0.86°C to 0.51°C, and a rise from 0.05°C to 0.38°C.

To see the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart summarising the progress of the Climate Bet so far, click on the graph on the top right of the page to see a larger version with data.

Written by admin

September 19th, 2019 at 9:21 pm

Warmer temperatures persist over 2019 to July

without comments

UAH’s measure of global average temperatures has not above the Al Gore/IPCC warming projection since February 2017, but the monthly mean temperatures this year have nevertheless remained closer to that projection than to the no-trend forecast in all but one of the seven months. For the 139 months of the Climate Bet so far, the monthly average temperature has been warmer than the warming projection for fewer than 19 percent of months, and has been below the no-trend forecast for 41 percent of months.

To see the updated Whole Earth Thermometer, click on the chart image on the top right of this page.

Written by admin

August 17th, 2019 at 4:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

June 2019 warmer than May, on average

without comments

At 0.47°C, June’s global temperature anomaly was up from May’s, and was the warmest since October 2017, 20 months ago. The June figure was also slightly warmer than the 2007 Bet base year’s maximum monthly anomaly of 0.43°C.

The experience of regions varied considerably, however, as US readers will likely have noticed. The anomaly for the 48 contiguous U.S. states was -0.64°C, which was even cooler than May, the previous month. Australia’s anomaly, while positive, was cooler than the previous 3 months, as was the case with the entire southern hemisphere over the land.

The northern polar region experienced a positive anomaly (0.90°C), but that was cooler than those of the 4 previous months, while the southern polar region experienced a negative anomaly (-0.39°C) that was cooler than the anomalies of the 8 previous months.

The updated chart (Whole Earth Thermometer), summarising the progress of The Climate Bet so far, can be inspected by clicking on the thumbnail chart to the top right of the screen.

Written by admin

July 5th, 2019 at 11:26 am