The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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TheClimateBet Tracker: Assume Mr. Gore took the bet

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Theclimatebet.com will report monthly results on the climatebet, assuming that Mr. Gore took the bet. Professor Armstrong says it is all part to natural variation that occurs over time. He expects the scientific approach to forecasting will win in the long-run, so the longer the horizon, the greater the chance for Prof. Armstrong to win. Based on simulations of changes over the past 157 years, his chances of winning would be in excess of 62% for the ten-year horizon of the bet. On a monthly basis, he expects it to be slightly in excess of 50%. Mr. Gore believe that we cannot afford to wait because global warming is happening rapidly. Thus, he should find this monthly tracking to be of great interest. For purposes of the bet we assumed that Mr. Gore agreed with the IPCC forecast of 30C rise per century whereas Professor Armstrong forecast no change.

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September 13th, 2009 at 9:04 pm

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