The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Test Your Climate Change IQ

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Take this one-question quiz and see how well you can forecast global average temperatures (Available for download here)

Problem

Assume that at the end of 1850 you forecast that the global average temperature in 50 years (the year 1900) would be the same as the 1850 average. Every year after that, you repeated the process. For example, at the end of 1851, you forecast that the global average temperature in 1901 would be the same as the 1851 average.

By now you have accumulated 108 fifty-year-ahead forecasts. Assume that you compared each of the 108 forecasts with the actual global average temperature as measured by the U.K. Met Office’s Hadley Centre in order to calculate your errors.

Question

What would be the mean absolute error (that is, ignore signs) of your 108 fifty-year-ahead forecasts?  ____°C

For the answer, see the paper at http://tinyurl.com/climateforecasts.

Written by mzfeldm

February 19th, 2009 at 9:48 pm

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