The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Forecasting experts’ simple model leaves expensive climate models cold

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A simple model was found to produce forecasts that are over seven times more accurate than forecasts from the procedures used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

This important finding is reported in an article titled “Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making” in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. It is the result of collaboration among forecasters J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, Kesten C. Green of the University of South Australia, and climate scientist Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. more...

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December 6th, 2009 at 10:43 am

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