Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
We have updated the Climate Bet chart with the December 2016 global temperature anomaly data from UAH. (Click on the small chart to the right for a more detailed image.) 2016 was a warm El Niño year, but ended with a sharply cooler month at 0.24°C; somewhat closer to Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast of 0.159°C than to Mr Gore’s IPCC dangerous warming trend figure for December 2016 of 0.443°C.
With the data in for 9 of the Climate Bet’s 10 years, the cumulative absolute error of the dangerous warming trend that the IPCC and Mr Gore warned that we should expect is nearly 23% greater than the error of the scientific no-change forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s bet. The no-change forecast has been more accurate in 78 of the 108 months of The Bet to-date.
Despite 30 months of The Bet in which the warming trend was more accurate, the cumulative error of the Gore/IPPC dangerous warming projection has been larger than Armstrong/no-trend forecast for all but two months of the bet so far.
November 2016: After 14 months of global average temperatures closer to Mr Gore’s warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s bet on no-trend, the Climate Bet is more in contention than it has been for the past four years. Some commentators expectations of a rapid cooling after the recent warm El Niño months have not so far been realised in global average temperature anomaly.
So, with only 13 months of The Bet remaining, what would need to happen to temperatures over that time for Mr Gore to win the bet—had he been willing to take it. After November’s 0.45°C outturn, and a total of 107 months of the bet, Mr Gore’s cumulative absolute error is nearly 21% greater than Professor Armstrong’s. As a consequence, global temperatures would need to average higher than they were in November for the remainder of the bet period. Temperature anomalies have exceeded that level in 9 months of the bet period to date.
Followers of the site may have noticed that we have not posted news items over the past few months. Please accept our apologies. Having overcome some software and administrative problems, we expect to be posting updates regularly for the remainder of the bet period.
Advocates of the dangerous manmade global warming hypothesis call for regulations in response to their alarm. Assume for a moment that the alarmists’ feverish scenarios really were going to come to pass… would regulations make the situation better?
The Iron Law of Regulation suggests otherwise. For a new site from Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong that is devoted to experimental evidence on the effects of regulations, see IronLawofRegulation.com.
Here’s one: “Demographers agree almost unanimously… thirty years from now,… the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine”. (The “almost unanimously” claim might sound familiar to those who have been paying any attention to the media coverage of the current global warming alarm.)
If you’ve got the stomach for it, The Daily Caller provides a list of “7 enviro predictions from Earth Day 1970 that were just dead wrong”. That the alarming forecasts were so wrong should be of no surprise to anyone who is familiar with the Golden Rule of Forecasting, or with Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong’s study of analogies to the global warming alarm.
The Daily Caller article, available here, describes the forecasts and the very different outcomes. The directions of the errors is all in the same direction. A reasonable person might wonder if, in addition to ignorance of other aspects of good forecasting practice, bias played an important role.
October 2015 saw the warmest global average temperature for nearly three years at 0.43°C above the 1981-2010 average. November followed with an “anomaly” of 0.33°C.
The put the figures into the slightly longer term context of The Climate Bet’s nearly 8 years to-date, the first three months of 2010 were all warmer than the October just gone. But how consistent are the figures with the IPCC-Al Gore dangerous manmade global warming projection?
While the October figure on its own is consistent with the +3°C per century IPCC “business as usual” projection applied to the 2007 bet base year average—it was 0.02°C warmer—that has only happened in 14 of the 95, or 15%, of the months of the bet, to date. The chance that a warmer than projected temperature would happen so few times by chance with an unbiased forecast is one-in-1,612,577,151,852.
For an explanation of why the IPCC projections are such bad forecasts, see Kesten Green’s guest post “Is climate forecasting immune from Occam’s razor” on the Watts Up With That site, here.
You might be forgiven for wondering whether such a difference holds any meaning for you. Not only are the month-to-month and year-to-year variations in global average temperature tiny, the local temperature variations that you are experiencing are quite likely to be opposite in direction. For example, the UAH global temperature anomaly increased from 0.18°C in July to 0.28°C in August. Over Australia the anomaly average stayed the same at -0.22°C, and over the 48 contiguous U.S. states the average fell from 0.16°C to 0.09°C. Both Poles experienced below average temperatures in August of -0.10°C in the northern polar region and -0.61°C in the southern. And these broad regions are hardly local!
At 0.18°C, July’s global average temperature anomaly is very close to the 2007 average of 0.16°C that Scott Armstrong is betting is the better forecast than Mr Gore’s dangerous global warming “tipping point” forecast. The latest chart (click on the small chart image to the right) shows that temperatures have seesawed over the 91 months of the bet so far. An inspection of the vertical (temperature) axis indicates that the seesawing of the monthly global temperature anomaly has been rather gentle, barely exceeding a third of a degree either side of the 2007 annual average.
Scott Armstrong was interviewed for the documentary, The Global Warming War. Released late last year, the movie provides a contrast with Merchants of Doubt in both style and substance. See The Global Warming War-Scott’s clips (2.5 minutes).
The LA Times letters editor has apparently decided that they know The Truth in scientific matters and will not let anything else bescmirch their pages. We will let someone else check the Times record in this endeavour. In the meantime, Scott Armstrong has written an op-ed asking who benefits from such a policy. His article, titled “Los Angeles Times endorses censorship with ban on letters from climate skeptics” is here.
The latest, March 2013, global mean temperature data from UAH is now plotted on the Climate Bet Graph at right. The temperature anomaly was the same as it was in February and was again cooler than Scott Armstrong’s no-change forecast. Overall, Al Gore’s IPCC “bet” of warming of 0.03°C per annum has been 18% less accurate than the no-change forecast. Over the 63-month life of the bet to date, on the basis of cumulative absolute error, Al Gore’s alarmist forecast has been the better bet for the 8 month period ending January 2011 only.