The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

September 2017 warmer

without comments

The September global average temperature anomaly was, at +0.54°C, the 5th warmest month of the 117 months of the 10-year bet so far.

The Gore/IPCC projection has provided a more accurate prediction of the temperature than Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast for 19 of the last 24 months. Overall, however, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 70% of the months of the bet so far.

Click on the chart on the top right of the page to see that latest data.

Written by admin

October 6th, 2017 at 2:25 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

August 2017 warmth keeps the Climate Bet interesting

without comments

After two cooler months that were closer to Professor Armstrong’s bet on the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast than to the Gore-IPCC manmade global warming projection, the UAH’s August global average temperature “anomaly” was, at +0.41°C, close to the warming projection’s 0.46°C for the month.

The August figure means that temperatures have been closer to the Gore-IPCC projection for four of the eight months of 2017 so far, and the absolute error for that period has been nearly 14 percent smaller than the no-trend forecast error.

With only four months of the ten-year bet remaining, we look forward to presenting detailed analysis of the full period of The Bet in the New Year.

To see the updated chart in large, click on the image at the top of the right hand column.

Written by admin

September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Global warming forecasts scientific? “People vs. alarmist regulation”

without comments

Professor Scott Armstrong presented a talk on this topic by him and Kesten Green at Heartland’s Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC12) on March 23 in Chicago.

The talk asks the question, “Are long-term forecasts of dangerous global warming scientific?”, and concludes…

“No, because:

  1. the only 2 papers with scientific forecasts found no long-term trends
  2. IPCC methods violate 81% of the 89 relevant scientific principles
  3. IPCC long-term forecasts errors for 90-100 years ahead were 12 times larger than the no-trend forecasts
  4. tests on three other data sets, one going back to 112 AD, found similarly poor accuracy
  5. the “long-term global cooling” hypothesis was twice as accurate as the dangerous global warming hypothesis
    Also “no” because the warming alarm…
  6. ignores all 20 of the relevant Golden Rule of Forecasting guidelines; the AGS scientific forecasts violated only one
  7. violates Occam’s razor
  8. fails to comply with any of the 8 criteria for scientific research
  9. fails to provide scientific forecasts of harm to people
  10. fails to provide scientific forecasts that “solutions” will work
  11. fails to meet any of the 10 necessary conditions for successful regulation
  12. is similar to 23 earlier environmental alarms supported by the government: all lacked scientific forecasts and all were wrong.”

A video of his presentation and a copy of a more complete set of slides with links to evidence, is available from here.

Written by admin

April 6th, 2017 at 2:37 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Politico-Scientific establishment rushes to climate alarm

without comments

David Rose’s 5 February, 2017, article in the Mail on Sunday has been receiving a lot of attention with its reporting of the rushed publication of a NOAA-authored article in the high-status journal Science in order to “influence the Paris agreement on climate change”. The article’s claim that there had been no “pause” in global warming was not only at odds with other published data, we now know that it was based on “misleading, ‘unverified’ data.”

The Rose article’s headline, “Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data”, hints at how much is at stake over the climate change issue. The article is available, here. Professor Judith Curry provides commentary on the commentary in her blog post titled “Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data”, here. Anthony Watts has also posted commentary at his Watts Up With That? site that includes a chart, which will be of particular interest to Australian readers, that shows raw and adjusted Alice Springs temperature data since about 1880, here. The chart is reproduced, below.

alicefeb17.png

Written by admin

February 8th, 2017 at 12:34 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

2017 ends on a cooler note: Gore remains less accurate than no-change after 9 years

without comments

We have updated the Climate Bet chart with the December 2016 global temperature anomaly data from UAH. (Click on the small chart to the right for a more detailed image.) 2016 was a warm El Niño year, but ended with a sharply cooler month at 0.24°C; somewhat closer to Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast of 0.159°C than to Mr Gore’s IPCC dangerous warming trend figure for December 2016 of 0.443°C.

With the data in for 9 of the Climate Bet’s 10 years, the cumulative absolute error of the dangerous warming trend that the IPCC and Mr Gore warned that we should expect is nearly 23% greater than the error of the scientific no-change forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s bet. The no-change forecast has been more accurate in 78 of the 108 months of The Bet to-date.

Despite 30 months of The Bet in which the warming trend was more accurate, the cumulative error of the Gore/IPPC dangerous warming projection has been larger than Armstrong/no-trend forecast for all but two months of the bet so far.

Written by admin

January 8th, 2017 at 10:50 am

Posted in Uncategorized

A new lease on life for the climate bet with 14 warmer months in a row

without comments

November 2016: After 14 months of global average temperatures closer to Mr Gore’s warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s bet on no-trend, the Climate Bet is more in contention than it has been for the past four years. Some commentators expectations of a rapid cooling after the recent warm El Niño months have not so far been realised in global average temperature anomaly.

So, with only 13 months of The Bet remaining, what would need to happen to temperatures over that time for Mr Gore to win the bet—had he been willing to take it. After November’s 0.45°C outturn, and a total of 107 months of the bet, Mr Gore’s cumulative absolute error is nearly 21% greater than Professor Armstrong’s. As a consequence, global temperatures would need to average higher than they were in November for the remainder of the bet period. Temperature anomalies have exceeded that level in 9 months of the bet period to date.

Followers of the site may have noticed that we have not posted news items over the past few months. Please accept our apologies. Having overcome some software and administrative problems, we expect to be posting updates regularly for the remainder of the bet period.

Written by admin

December 8th, 2016 at 12:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Regulate the climate?: A new resource on the effects of regs

without comments

Advocates of the dangerous manmade global warming hypothesis call for regulations in response to their alarm. Assume for a moment that the alarmists’ feverish scenarios really were going to come to pass… would regulations make the situation better?

The Iron Law of Regulation suggests otherwise. For a new site from Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong that is devoted to experimental evidence on the effects of regulations, see IronLawofRegulation.com.

Written by admin

June 20th, 2016 at 7:34 pm

Earth Day 1970 predictions: Evidence of bias?

without comments

Here’s one: “Demographers agree almost unanimously… thirty years from now,… the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine”. (The “almost unanimously” claim might sound familiar to those who have been paying any attention to the media coverage of the current global warming alarm.)

If you’ve got the stomach for it, The Daily Caller provides a list of “7 enviro predictions from Earth Day 1970 that were just dead wrong”. That the alarming forecasts were so wrong should be of no surprise to anyone who is familiar with the Golden Rule of Forecasting, or with Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong’s study of analogies to the global warming alarm.

The Daily Caller article, available here, describes the forecasts and the  very different outcomes. The directions of the errors is all in the same direction. A reasonable person might wonder if, in addition to ignorance of other aspects of good forecasting practice, bias played an important role.

Written by admin

April 23rd, 2016 at 1:01 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

October-November global temperatures (slightly) warm Paris climate talks

without comments

October 2015 saw the warmest global average temperature for nearly three years at 0.43°C above the 1981-2010 average. November followed with an “anomaly” of 0.33°C.

The put the figures into the slightly longer term context of The Climate Bet’s nearly 8 years to-date, the first three months of 2010 were all warmer than the October just gone. But how consistent are the figures with the IPCC-Al Gore dangerous manmade global warming projection?

While the October figure on its own is consistent with the +3°C per century IPCC “business as usual” projection applied to the 2007 bet base year average—it was 0.02°C warmer—that has only happened in 14 of the 95, or 15%, of the months of the bet, to date. The chance that a warmer than projected temperature would happen so few times by chance with an unbiased forecast is one-in-1,612,577,151,852.

For an explanation of why the IPCC projections are such bad forecasts, see Kesten Green’s guest post “Is climate forecasting immune from Occam’s razor” on the Watts Up With That site, here.

Written by admin

December 25th, 2015 at 6:17 am

Posted in Uncategorized

With two-thirds of 2015 behind us, we’re averaging .025°C up on 2014

without comments

You might be forgiven for wondering whether such a difference holds any meaning for you. Not only are the month-to-month and year-to-year variations in global average temperature tiny, the local temperature variations that you are experiencing are quite likely to be opposite in direction. For example, the UAH global temperature anomaly increased from 0.18°C in July to 0.28°C in August. Over Australia the anomaly average stayed the same at -0.22°C, and over the 48 contiguous U.S. states the average fell from 0.16°C to 0.09°C. Both Poles experienced below average temperatures in August of -0.10°C in the northern polar region and -0.61°C in the southern. And these broad regions are hardly local!

Written by admin

September 16th, 2015 at 2:31 am

Posted in Uncategorized