The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

“…new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change show humans are not causing a climate crisis”

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A new 1,000-page report titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change was presented on December 4 in Katowice, Poland. (In case you missed it, Katowice is where the many delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change gathered from far and wide to argue for climate alarm.)

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels assesses the costs and benefits of the use of fossil fuels (principally coal, oil, and natural gas) by reviewing scientific and economic literature on organic chemistry, climate science, public health, economic history, human security, and theoretical studies based on integrated assessment models (IAMs). It is the fifth volume in the Climate Change Reconsidered series and, like the preceding volumes, it focuses on research overlooked or ignored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The chapters of the report are:

Part 1: Foundations
1. Environmental Economics
2. Climate Science

Part II: Benefits of Fossil Fuels
3. Human Prosperity
4. Human Health Benefits
5. Environmental Benefits

Part III: Costs of Fossil Fuels
6. Air Quality
7. Human Security
8. Cost-Benefit Analysis

A press release, Summary for Policymakers, the report itself as one large file, and individual chapters are available to download from the NIPCC site, here.

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December 7th, 2018 at 2:15 pm

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November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

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The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

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December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

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The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

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July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

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May 2018 temperature close to 2007 average

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After two years or so of warmer temperatures, 2018 global average temperatures have so far been close to the 2007 average. That figure—an “anomaly” of 0.159°C—is the baseline for the Scott Armstrong’s “Bet” with Al Gore, and hence the value of the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is backing against Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous global warming projection. The updated temperature chart can be seen in detail by clicking on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

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June 7th, 2018 at 6:24 pm

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April 2018 temperatures show little change

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Our update of the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart (to the upper right of this page) with the UAH April 2018 global mean temperatures shows temperatures were remarkably close to the 2007 Climate Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

The chart as a whole could reasonably be characterised as showing temperatures drifting sideways, largely within a +/-0.3°C band. Not surprisingly, then, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC dangerous warming projection has been smaller than that of the no-trend forecast for only 2 of the 124 months of the bet so far, and that was back in September and October 2010.

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May 7th, 2018 at 10:53 am

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November 2017 sees warmth ease

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At 0.36°C, the UAH November global average lower-troposphere temperature anomaly was lower than the 2016 average and roughly equal to the 2017 average to-date. Despite being down, the November figure is closer to the Gore-IPCC projection than to the Armstrong-no-change forecast—that has been the case for 31% of the 119 months of the bet to-date.

With only one month of the 10-year bet remaining, we will hold off on more detailed analysis until the new year. To see the latest data, click on the miniature chart to the right of the page.

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December 12th, 2017 at 2:36 pm

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October 2017 sees three warmer months in a row

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With a monthly anomaly of 0.63°C (UAH Lower Troposphere), October was the third month in a row with temperatures closer to the IPCC/Gore dangerous manmade warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s no-trend forecast from Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009).

With two months of the 120 month (2-year) Climate Bet to go, however, the absolute error of Mr Gore’s projection remains more than 15% larger than Professor Armstrong’s.

For the latest chart and data, click on the small chart image on the top right of this page.

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November 8th, 2017 at 11:24 am

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September 2017 warmer

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The September global average temperature anomaly was, at +0.54°C, the 5th warmest month of the 117 months of the 10-year bet so far.

The Gore/IPCC projection has provided a more accurate prediction of the temperature than Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast for 19 of the last 24 months. Overall, however, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 70% of the months of the bet so far.

Click on the chart on the top right of the page to see that latest data.

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October 6th, 2017 at 2:25 pm

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August 2017 warmth keeps the Climate Bet interesting

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After two cooler months that were closer to Professor Armstrong’s bet on the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast than to the Gore-IPCC manmade global warming projection, the UAH’s August global average temperature “anomaly” was, at +0.41°C, close to the warming projection’s 0.46°C for the month.

The August figure means that temperatures have been closer to the Gore-IPCC projection for four of the eight months of 2017 so far, and the absolute error for that period has been nearly 14 percent smaller than the no-trend forecast error.

With only four months of the ten-year bet remaining, we look forward to presenting detailed analysis of the full period of The Bet in the New Year.

To see the updated chart in large, click on the image at the top of the right hand column.

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September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 am

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Global warming forecasts scientific? “People vs. alarmist regulation”

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Professor Scott Armstrong presented a talk on this topic by him and Kesten Green at Heartland’s Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC12) on March 23 in Chicago.

The talk asks the question, “Are long-term forecasts of dangerous global warming scientific?”, and concludes…

“No, because:

  1. the only 2 papers with scientific forecasts found no long-term trends
  2. IPCC methods violate 81% of the 89 relevant scientific principles
  3. IPCC long-term forecasts errors for 90-100 years ahead were 12 times larger than the no-trend forecasts
  4. tests on three other data sets, one going back to 112 AD, found similarly poor accuracy
  5. the “long-term global cooling” hypothesis was twice as accurate as the dangerous global warming hypothesis
    Also “no” because the warming alarm…
  6. ignores all 20 of the relevant Golden Rule of Forecasting guidelines; the AGS scientific forecasts violated only one
  7. violates Occam’s razor
  8. fails to comply with any of the 8 criteria for scientific research
  9. fails to provide scientific forecasts of harm to people
  10. fails to provide scientific forecasts that “solutions” will work
  11. fails to meet any of the 10 necessary conditions for successful regulation
  12. is similar to 23 earlier environmental alarms supported by the government: all lacked scientific forecasts and all were wrong.”

A video of his presentation and a copy of a more complete set of slides with links to evidence, is available from here.

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April 6th, 2017 at 2:37 pm

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