The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

June 2018 temperature falls near middle of 2007 base year range

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The UAH mean global temperature anomaly estimate for June 2018 was 0.21ºC. For the year-to-date, the average is cooler than the average for last three years, and close to the 2007 Bet base year average. The monthly anomalies in 2007 ranged between -0.04 and 0.43°C.

An inspection of the updated chart (top right) of this page shows that the recorded temperature has only infrequently exceeded the  IPCC/Gore projection of 3ºC per century of warming. In fact the recorded temperature has been lower than the dangerous warming projection for 82% of months since the end of 2007. That figure compares unfavourably with the 57% of months for which the actual temperature was warmer than Armstrong’s bet on the no-change forecast. Note that a figure of 50% would be unbiased.

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July 10th, 2018 at 7:07 pm

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May 2018 temperature close to 2007 average

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After two years or so of warmer temperatures, 2018 global average temperatures have so far been close to the 2007 average. That figure—an “anomaly” of 0.159°C—is the baseline for the Scott Armstrong’s “Bet” with Al Gore, and hence the value of the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is backing against Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous global warming projection. The updated temperature chart can be seen in detail by clicking on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

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June 7th, 2018 at 6:24 pm

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April 2018 temperatures show little change

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Our update of the Whole-Earth Thermometer chart (to the upper right of this page) with the UAH April 2018 global mean temperatures shows temperatures were remarkably close to the 2007 Climate Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

The chart as a whole could reasonably be characterised as showing temperatures drifting sideways, largely within a +/-0.3°C band. Not surprisingly, then, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC dangerous warming projection has been smaller than that of the no-trend forecast for only 2 of the 124 months of the bet so far, and that was back in September and October 2010.

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May 7th, 2018 at 10:53 am

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November 2017 sees warmth ease

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At 0.36°C, the UAH November global average lower-troposphere temperature anomaly was lower than the 2016 average and roughly equal to the 2017 average to-date. Despite being down, the November figure is closer to the Gore-IPCC projection than to the Armstrong-no-change forecast—that has been the case for 31% of the 119 months of the bet to-date.

With only one month of the 10-year bet remaining, we will hold off on more detailed analysis until the new year. To see the latest data, click on the miniature chart to the right of the page.

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December 12th, 2017 at 2:36 pm

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October 2017 sees three warmer months in a row

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With a monthly anomaly of 0.63°C (UAH Lower Troposphere), October was the third month in a row with temperatures closer to the IPCC/Gore dangerous manmade warming scenario than to Professor Armstrong’s no-trend forecast from Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009).

With two months of the 120 month (2-year) Climate Bet to go, however, the absolute error of Mr Gore’s projection remains more than 15% larger than Professor Armstrong’s.

For the latest chart and data, click on the small chart image on the top right of this page.

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November 8th, 2017 at 11:24 am

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September 2017 warmer

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The September global average temperature anomaly was, at +0.54°C, the 5th warmest month of the 117 months of the 10-year bet so far.

The Gore/IPCC projection has provided a more accurate prediction of the temperature than Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast for 19 of the last 24 months. Overall, however, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 70% of the months of the bet so far.

Click on the chart on the top right of the page to see that latest data.

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October 6th, 2017 at 2:25 pm

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August 2017 warmth keeps the Climate Bet interesting

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After two cooler months that were closer to Professor Armstrong’s bet on the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-trend forecast than to the Gore-IPCC manmade global warming projection, the UAH’s August global average temperature “anomaly” was, at +0.41°C, close to the warming projection’s 0.46°C for the month.

The August figure means that temperatures have been closer to the Gore-IPCC projection for four of the eight months of 2017 so far, and the absolute error for that period has been nearly 14 percent smaller than the no-trend forecast error.

With only four months of the ten-year bet remaining, we look forward to presenting detailed analysis of the full period of The Bet in the New Year.

To see the updated chart in large, click on the image at the top of the right hand column.

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September 19th, 2017 at 11:14 am

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Global warming forecasts scientific? “People vs. alarmist regulation”

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Professor Scott Armstrong presented a talk on this topic by him and Kesten Green at Heartland’s Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC12) on March 23 in Chicago.

The talk asks the question, “Are long-term forecasts of dangerous global warming scientific?”, and concludes…

“No, because:

  1. the only 2 papers with scientific forecasts found no long-term trends
  2. IPCC methods violate 81% of the 89 relevant scientific principles
  3. IPCC long-term forecasts errors for 90-100 years ahead were 12 times larger than the no-trend forecasts
  4. tests on three other data sets, one going back to 112 AD, found similarly poor accuracy
  5. the “long-term global cooling” hypothesis was twice as accurate as the dangerous global warming hypothesis
    Also “no” because the warming alarm…
  6. ignores all 20 of the relevant Golden Rule of Forecasting guidelines; the AGS scientific forecasts violated only one
  7. violates Occam’s razor
  8. fails to comply with any of the 8 criteria for scientific research
  9. fails to provide scientific forecasts of harm to people
  10. fails to provide scientific forecasts that “solutions” will work
  11. fails to meet any of the 10 necessary conditions for successful regulation
  12. is similar to 23 earlier environmental alarms supported by the government: all lacked scientific forecasts and all were wrong.”

A video of his presentation and a copy of a more complete set of slides with links to evidence, is available from here.

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April 6th, 2017 at 2:37 pm

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Politico-Scientific establishment rushes to climate alarm

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David Rose’s 5 February, 2017, article in the Mail on Sunday has been receiving a lot of attention with its reporting of the rushed publication of a NOAA-authored article in the high-status journal Science in order to “influence the Paris agreement on climate change”. The article’s claim that there had been no “pause” in global warming was not only at odds with other published data, we now know that it was based on “misleading, ‘unverified’ data.”

The Rose article’s headline, “Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data”, hints at how much is at stake over the climate change issue. The article is available, here. Professor Judith Curry provides commentary on the commentary in her blog post titled “Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data”, here. Anthony Watts has also posted commentary at his Watts Up With That? site that includes a chart, which will be of particular interest to Australian readers, that shows raw and adjusted Alice Springs temperature data since about 1880, here. The chart is reproduced, below.

alicefeb17.png

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February 8th, 2017 at 12:34 pm

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2017 ends on a cooler note: Gore remains less accurate than no-change after 9 years

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We have updated the Climate Bet chart with the December 2016 global temperature anomaly data from UAH. (Click on the small chart to the right for a more detailed image.) 2016 was a warm El Niño year, but ended with a sharply cooler month at 0.24°C; somewhat closer to Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast of 0.159°C than to Mr Gore’s IPCC dangerous warming trend figure for December 2016 of 0.443°C.

With the data in for 9 of the Climate Bet’s 10 years, the cumulative absolute error of the dangerous warming trend that the IPCC and Mr Gore warned that we should expect is nearly 23% greater than the error of the scientific no-change forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s bet. The no-change forecast has been more accurate in 78 of the 108 months of The Bet to-date.

Despite 30 months of The Bet in which the warming trend was more accurate, the cumulative error of the Gore/IPPC dangerous warming projection has been larger than Armstrong/no-trend forecast for all but two months of the bet so far.

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January 8th, 2017 at 10:50 am

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