The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

Archive for the ‘the challenge’ Category

November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

without comments

The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

Written by admin

December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm

October 2018 temperatures in the middle of the 2007 base year range

without comments

The 2007 base year of The Bet saw UAH global temperature anomalies range from 0.43°C to -0.13°C. The latest figure—of 0.22°C for October 2018—lies more-or-less in the middle of that range.

Of the 130 months of the extended Bet, so far, 32 months—less than one-quarter—have fallen outside the base-year range. Of those months with temperatures falling outside that range, nearly one-half (47%) were cooler than the coolest month of 2017.

Written by admin

November 9th, 2018 at 10:32 am

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

without comments

From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

Written by admin

October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am

September 2018 temperatures drift lower

without comments

The UAH temperature anomaly for September was for the first time since July 2015 lower than the 2007 base year average that is the basis for the Climate Bet. With that latest dip in the global mean temperature, 42% of the 129 months of the extended bet period have seen temperatures lower than the base year average, which is also the no-change forecast proposed for the “Bet” by Professor Armstrong.

To put the 42% figure into context, consider that over a long period of time one would expect the actual temperature to be lower than an unbiased forecast about half of the time, and above it half of the time. While 42% is not 50%, contrast the figure with the percentage of months for which the actual temperature was greater than the Gore/IPCC global warming extrapolation of 0.3°C per decade… that figure is less than 19%.

With 111 months of the second decade of the bet remaining, the actual temperature would need to be below the 2007 average for 59.4% of months for the no-change forecasts to be counted as “perfectly” unbiased. For the dangerous warming forecast to be considered “perfectly” unbiased, actual temperatures would need to fall above the 0.3°C per decade trend line for 86.4% of months.

Written by admin

October 6th, 2018 at 3:04 pm

August 2018 global average temperatures unremarkable

without comments

The latest lower troposphere—the part of the Earth’s atmosphere where weather occurs and life exists—monthly average temperature anomaly from UAH is shown in the revised chart to the top right of this page. Click the thumbnail image for a larger image and table of recent data.

The August figure was 0.19°C, little different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C.

Written by admin

September 17th, 2018 at 10:34 am

Posted in the challenge

July temperature update sees more of the same

without comments

The UAH global average temperature anomaly was closer to the 2007 Bet base-year average that the IPCC-Gore warming projection again in July 2018. That has been the case  for every month of this year, so far. Note also that for more than 75% of the 127 months of the bet so far, the temperature anomaly has not been outside of the range of the 2007 monthly averages. The updated chart is available at the top right of this page.

Written by admin

August 9th, 2018 at 3:01 pm

Are we living on a dangerously warming planet?

without comments

The news keeps coming in from the New York Times and other media that there is no longer any doubt that the Earth is getting dangerous warmer. If you believe that to be true, there is nothing that we can say to change your opinion. Only you can do that. And to do so, you first need to address this question: “Could I imagine anything that could possibly change my mind?”

If so, you might be interested in the short article on WUWT titled “Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?“. It might provide the information you are seeking.

March 2018 cooler than same month of 2007 Bet base year

without comments

Temperatures have drifted up and down since Mr Gore warned of a dangerous warming “tipping point” at the start of 2007, as they always have. Eleven years on, the temperatures recorded for the first 3 months of this year look remarkably similar to the first 3 months of 2007: 0.26°C, 0.20°C, and 0.24°C compared to 0.43°C, 0.19°C, and 0.26°C. See the updated chart to the right, and click for a larger image and table.

Written by admin

April 14th, 2018 at 7:20 pm

February 2018 temperatures same as 11 years ago

without comments

The UAH global temperature anomaly for February 2018 was 0.20°C, which is little different from the February 2007 figure of 0.19°C, and lower than January and March 2007 figure of 0.43°C and 0.26°C. The updated chart for the extended (20 year) Climate Bet is at right. Click on the thumbnail chart for a larger image.

Some critics of our recent analysis of the Climate Bet at 10 years argued that  Read the rest of this entry »

Written by admin

March 12th, 2018 at 3:44 pm

Climate Bet starts a second 10 years with cooler month: January 2018

without comments

With Professor Armstrong keen to put his evidence-based no-change forecast to the test for a further ten years, we have updated the Climate Bet chart with the 121st bet month of UAH lower troposphere data. January 2018’s global temperature anomaly was 0.10°C higher than the forecast of no trend in temperatures from the 2007 average, and 0.22°C lower than the “dangerous manmade global warming” Gore/IPCC +3°C per century extrapolation.

Written by admin

February 28th, 2018 at 9:55 am