The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘the challenge’ Category

September 2019 anomaly above IPCC/Gore warming for first time in 2 years

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September recorded the warmest global mean temperature anomaly since October of 2017. If the months of the fourth quarter of 2019 stay on the warmer side, 2019 could be the fourth year in twelve in which the annual average global temperature anomaly has been closer to a 3°C-per-century warming trend than to no-change. For the updated chart of progress of the Climate Bet, click on the Whole Earth Thermometer image on the top right of the screen.

Written by Heidi Mercer

October 12th, 2019 at 10:52 am

No change in global average temperatures from July to August

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The UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly remained unchanged in August 2019 from the previous month at 0.38°C. The month counts as the seventh win for Mr Gore out of the eight months of this year so far—the 44th win out of the 140 months of the extended bet, so far.

With no change in the average, it is interesting to observe to what extent the regional averages changed. Average temperature anomalies in the tropics fell from 0.61°C to 0.37°C over the land and rose from 0.40°C to 0.44°C over the sea. The corresponding figures for the northern polar region were a rise from 0.25°C to 0.53°C and a fall from 0.42°C to 0.33°C, and for the southern polar region were a fall from 0.86°C to 0.51°C, and a rise from 0.05°C to 0.38°C.

To see the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart summarising the progress of the Climate Bet so far, click on the graph on the top right of the page to see a larger version with data.

Written by admin

September 19th, 2019 at 9:21 pm

June 2019 warmer than May, on average

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At 0.47°C, June’s global temperature anomaly was up from May’s, and was the warmest since October 2017, 20 months ago. The June figure was also slightly warmer than the 2007 Bet base year’s maximum monthly anomaly of 0.43°C.

The experience of regions varied considerably, however, as US readers will likely have noticed. The anomaly for the 48 contiguous U.S. states was -0.64°C, which was even cooler than May, the previous month. Australia’s anomaly, while positive, was cooler than the previous 3 months, as was the case with the entire southern hemisphere over the land.

The northern polar region experienced a positive anomaly (0.90°C), but that was cooler than those of the 4 previous months, while the southern polar region experienced a negative anomaly (-0.39°C) that was cooler than the anomalies of the 8 previous months.

The updated chart (Whole Earth Thermometer), summarising the progress of The Climate Bet so far, can be inspected by clicking on the thumbnail chart to the top right of the screen.

Written by admin

July 5th, 2019 at 11:26 am

April 2019 warmer, again

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The global mean UAH lower troposphere temperature anomaly ticked up again in April. So far, 2019 global monthly averages have all been warmer than the warmest month in 2018. For a larger chart showing the history of the Climate Bet, including the latest data, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer image to the top right of this page.

Written by admin

May 13th, 2019 at 11:30 am

March quarter 2019 temperatures warmer than 2018

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The UAH lower troposphere temperature global average anomalies for the first three months of 2019 have been higher than at any stage during 2018 to the extent that they were slightly closer to the 3°C-per-century warming projection from the IPCC than they were to the no-change (no-trend) forecast. By contrast, every month of 2018 was closer to the no-trend forecast. Over the 135 month term to-date of the extended Climate Bet, the global average temperature has been closer to the no-change forecast than to the IPCC “dangerous warming” forecast for more than 70% of months.

Written by admin

April 12th, 2019 at 11:51 am

A warmer start to 2019 sees January a winning month for Mr Gore

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At 0.37°C, the January 2019 anomaly was the highest since since December 2017. Just above the mid-point between the no-change from the 2007 average forecast of 0.159°C and the IPCC/Gore 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming forecast for January of 0.505°C, the month counts as a win for Mr Gore.

So far, the monthly wins tally stands at:

dangerous warming trend: 40 months
no trend (Armstrong):         93 months.

Over the course of the Bet to date, the dangerous warming forecast has never been the better forecast for as many as 40% of months. The no-trend, no need for policy action, forecast remains the best bet, having won just under 70% of months so far.

Written by admin

February 12th, 2019 at 2:10 am

2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise

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The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C.

The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C, and are all well within the base year range of -0.04°C to +0.43°C.

Interestingly, in the now 11 years since 2007, monthly global mean temperature anomalies have fallen outside the 2007 range on only 32 of the 132 months, with nearly half of those months (15) falling below the 2007 minimum.

The 2018 year was cooler than any of the previous three years, and cooler also than 2010. In other words, 2018 was cooler than 40% of the previous ten years.

So how do things stand with the extended “Bet” between the no-change model forecasts and the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming projection (standing in for Mr Gore’s “tipping point” warnings)?

After 11 years, the Bet’s summary measure—the cumulative absolute error of the warming projection relative to that of the no-change forecasts—is 1.211. In other words, the errors of the “dangerous” warming projection have been 21.1% larger then the errors of the forecasts from a simple model that assumes that we do not know enough about the causes of climate change to make predictions over policy-relevant horizons that are more accurate than an extrapolation of the previous year’s average into the distant future.

Note also that unbiased forecasts would be expected be warmer than the actual temperature as often as they were cooler. To date, the actual temperature has been equal to or warmer than the IPCC/Gore projection for only 18.2% of months. That figure compares with the 40.9% of months that the temperature anomaly has been less than or equal to no-change projection.

For the latest data and chart summarising the Bet, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer on the top right of theclimatebet.com site.

Written by admin

January 7th, 2019 at 2:10 pm

November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

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The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

Written by admin

December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm

October 2018 temperatures in the middle of the 2007 base year range

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The 2007 base year of The Bet saw UAH global temperature anomalies range from 0.43°C to -0.13°C. The latest figure—of 0.22°C for October 2018—lies more-or-less in the middle of that range.

Of the 130 months of the extended Bet, so far, 32 months—less than one-quarter—have fallen outside the base-year range. Of those months with temperatures falling outside that range, nearly one-half (47%) were cooler than the coolest month of 2017.

Written by admin

November 9th, 2018 at 10:32 am

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

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From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

Written by admin

October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am