The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘scientific approach’ Category

November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

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The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

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December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

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From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

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October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am

Science, and forecasting climate

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Scott Armstrong presented a paper at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, CO, on 19 June titled “Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?”. A pdf copy of the slides is available from ResearchGate, here.

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July 5th, 2018 at 12:50 pm

Are we living on a dangerously warming planet?

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The news keeps coming in from the New York Times and other media that there is no longer any doubt that the Earth is getting dangerous warmer. If you believe that to be true, there is nothing that we can say to change your opinion. Only you can do that. And to do so, you first need to address this question: “Could I imagine anything that could possibly change my mind?”

If so, you might be interested in the short article on WUWT titled “Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?“. It might provide the information you are seeking.

Climate Bet starts a second 10 years with cooler month: January 2018

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With Professor Armstrong keen to put his evidence-based no-change forecast to the test for a further ten years, we have updated the Climate Bet chart with the 121st bet month of UAH lower troposphere data. January 2018’s global temperature anomaly was 0.10°C higher than the forecast of no trend in temperatures from the 2007 average, and 0.22°C lower than the “dangerous manmade global warming” Gore/IPCC +3°C per century extrapolation.

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February 28th, 2018 at 9:55 am

Tipping point 10 years on: Who won the Armstrong-Gore “bet” on the climate?

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The Challenge

In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong challenged former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the next 10 years. Professor Armstrong’s challenge was in response to Mr. Gore’s warning of a looming dangerous “tipping point” in temperatures. But when even scientists who are expert in a field make predictions about complex situation without using scientific forecasting methods, their forecasts have no value. The proposed $10,000 bet, then, was intended to draw attention to the need to assess the predictive validity of climate forecasts in an objective manner. Read the rest of this entry »

July 2017: Another unremarkable month for the global average temperature

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The  global mean temperature anomaly for the month of July 2017, as estimated by the UAH  climate scientists, was 0.29°C. If it weren’t for the cries of alarm about what Mr Gore and others speculate might happen, there would be little interest in this obscure and unremarkable measurement.

Mr Gore and the IPCC did raise the alarm, however, so here on site we will continue to monitor the performance of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s 3°C per century of warming projection relative to Professor Armstrong’s bet on scientific forecasting forecasting and the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-change model. With only 5 months of the ten-year notional bet left to run, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC projection is 21% larger than the error of the scientific forecast.

On “Alarming Climate: Expert opinions and government funding versus scientific forecasting”

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Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon responded to MIT President Reif’s apparently unshaken belief in dangerous manmade global warming in a letter published by WUWT on July 20. The letter starts as follows:

On June 17, we and our co-authors received a response to our letter to MIT President, Professor Reif, raising concerns about his letter to the MIT community in support of the Paris Climate Accord. Professor Reif’s response stated that he was confident in his position on the issue because it is consistent with the beliefs of experts that implementation of the Paris Accord is necessary to save the world from harmful effects of man-made global warming. We are not reassured.

The read the full letter, published on WUWT under the headline “Alarums And Excursions”, here.

May 2017: Global temperature ticks up for 2 months running

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A good month for Mr Gore with UAH’s global average temperature figure almost on the Gore/IPCC red warming line after two months in a row of increasing temperatures. This is an uncommon event: during the 113 months of the bet, so far, temperatures have increased for two months running only 20% of the time.

Runs of temperature increases or decreases are the exception. Three months of increasing temperatures has only occurred for 6% of the bet months, so an increase again in June would be even more unusual. By contrast, three months running of falling temperatures has occurred for 9% of the 113 bet month.

Despite the warmer month, Mr Gore’s cumulative absolute forecast error remains nearly 22% greater than the error from Professor Armstrong’s Green-Armstrong-Soon no change forecast.

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June 7th, 2017 at 12:43 pm

Lindzen on climate alarmism

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MIT professor of atmospheric science Richard Lindzen wrote in his April 25 “Thoughts on the public discourse over climate change”:

Although I have presented evidence as to why the issue is not a catastrophe and may likely be beneficial, the response is puzzlement. I am typically asked how this is possible. After all, 97% of scientists agree, several of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past 18 years, all sorts of extremes have become more common, polar bears are disappearing, as is arctic ice, etc. In brief, there is overwhelming evidence of warming, etc. I tended to be surprised that anyone could get away with such sophistry or even downright dishonesty, but it is, unfortunately, the case that this was not evident to many of my listeners. I will try in this brief article to explain why such claims are, in fact, evidence of the dishonesty of the alarmist position.

To read the rest of his op-ed, see here.