The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

longines,tissot,fake rolex for sale,rolex day date,zenith,rolex datejust,cartier,omega,replica watches,u boat,rolex milgauss,patek philippe,rolex masterpiece,montblanc,rolex replica,a lange sohne,panerai,tag heuer

Archive for the ‘global warming’ Category

Letter to MIT President Reif in effort to dispel dangerous warming delusions

without comments

In a letter dated June 2 sent to the MIT Community entitled, “Letter regarding US withdrawal from Paris climate agreement,” MIT President, Professor L. Rafael Reif criticized the decision taken by President Donald Trump to exit the Paris Agreement. In the following rebuttal of Professor Reif’s letter, we seek to clarify the state of scientific understanding of climate. We do so in order to dispel the popular delusions that we are faced with a problem of dangerous manmade global warming, and that the Paris Agreement would be beneficial.

Istvan Marko, J. Scott Armstrong, William M. Briggs, Kesten Green, Hermann Harde, David R. Legates, Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Willie Soon

1. “Yesterday, the White House took the position that the Paris climate agreement – a landmark effort to combat global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions – was a bad deal for America.” [Emphasis added to correspond to our comment.] Reif (2017).

To the best of our knowledge, there is no scientific basis unambiguously establishing that CO2 is the main driver of the modest temperature increase observed since the end of the Little Ice Age… [More]

Month 112 of 120 month Climate Bet (April 2017) sees temps near average, again

without comments

April’s UAH temperature anomaly came in at 0.27°C, up from March (0.19°C), but well down on the 2016 average of 0.5°C. With 8 months of The Climate Bet left to run, we ask again, “how high would temperatures need to be over the remainder of 2017 for Mr Gore to win The Bet?”

If the temperature anomaly equalled the high for the period of The Bet so far (0.83°C) for the rest of this year, Professor Armstrong would still win The Bet backing the Green-Armstrong-Soon no-trend forecast. In fact, any plausibly extreme warm temperatures over the remainder of 2017 would still leave Professor Armstrong as the clear winner.

For the latest anomaly and updated Bet chart, click on the small chart image in the right column.

Written by admin

May 23rd, 2017 at 9:01 am

Lindzen on climate alarmism

without comments

MIT professor of atmospheric science Richard Lindzen wrote in his April 25 “Thoughts on the public discourse over climate change”:

Although I have presented evidence as to why the issue is not a catastrophe and may likely be beneficial, the response is puzzlement. I am typically asked how this is possible. After all, 97% of scientists agree, several of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past 18 years, all sorts of extremes have become more common, polar bears are disappearing, as is arctic ice, etc. In brief, there is overwhelming evidence of warming, etc. I tended to be surprised that anyone could get away with such sophistry or even downright dishonesty, but it is, unfortunately, the case that this was not evident to many of my listeners. I will try in this brief article to explain why such claims are, in fact, evidence of the dishonesty of the alarmist position.

To read the rest of his op-ed, see here.

Armstrong interview on Earth Day: “Give us your money and we will save you…”

without comments

“A lot of these people that were marching weren’t familiar with the first Earth Day in 1970. The first Earth Day said, ‘The science is settled: the Earth is getting colder.’ And the government said, ‘Give us your money, and we’ll save you,’” Armstrong told SiriusXM host Alex Marlow.

“The earth did not get colder. In fact, it got a bit warmer,” he noted. “So money was wasted, people forgot. But then last Saturday, we’re told once again that this time it’s really settled, and it’s getting warmer this time. So give us your money, and we’ll save you.”

More…

Written by admin

April 25th, 2017 at 9:49 am

March 2017 cooler than same month 10 years ago

without comments

According to the UAH satellite measure of global temperatures the March anomaly, at 0.19°C, was down from the same month in 2007 (0.26°C), the base year of the Armstrong-Gore “Bet” on whether dangerous manmade global warming was a good forecast. Temperatures cooled during 2007, so the March anomaly, while down strongly from the previous month, is still slightly warmer than the average for the  2007 year, which was a little under 0.16°C.

On the basis of the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no change (no trend) forecast, Professor Armstrong bet that global mean temperatures during the ten years from 2008 to 2017 would be closer to the 2007 average than to the 0.3°C warming trend projected by the U.N. IPCC and Mr Gore’s alarming “tipping point” rapid rise in global temperatures.

To date, the average monthly signed error of Professor Armstrong’s forecast is -0.01°C. In other words, the no-trend forecast has been on the high-side as much as it has been on the low side of the actual global average anomaly. By contrast, Mr Gore’s IPCC stand-in projection has had an average monthly signed error of +0.15°C, which suggests a strong bias toward warming.

Written by admin

April 17th, 2017 at 7:40 pm

February 2017 global average temperature gives Mr Gore’s chances a lift

without comments

After 2 months that saw wins for Professor Armstrong’s bet on no long term change in global mean temperatures, the UAH estimate for February came in at 0.35°C. That was 0.1°C cooler than Mr Gore’s “bet” on the IPCC 3°C per century warming scenario, but 0.2°C warmer than Professor Armstrong’s forecast.

While Mr Gore’s bet had a run of wins recently—from October 2015 to November 2016—Professor Armstrong’s scientific no-change forecast has won 80 of the 110 months of the bet so far. So, while Mr Gore’s favoured dangerous manmade global warming scenario is looking more credible than it has done for almost five years, the scenario’s cumulative absolute forecast error to date is still more than 22% larger than that of the no-change forecast.

The Climate Bet now has only 10 months of its 10 year term to run.

Written by admin

March 6th, 2017 at 11:53 am

May, then June, saw big falls in temperature anomalies

without comments

From a global average anomaly of 0.71°C for April, temperatures dropped to 0.34°C for June 2016, two months later. The fall in average temperatures of 0.37°C is the largest two-month decline in the history of the Armstrong-Gore Climate Bet, and closely matches the record two-month increase of 0.38°C that occurred between December 2015 and February of this year.

Despite the rapid cooling, June was still relatively warm, and so the month counts as a win for Mr Gore. He needs temperatures to pick up again rapidly, and stay well up, if he is to have a chance of winning the bet, which ends at the end of next year. For the latest data and chart, click on the small chart to the top right of the page.

Written by admin

July 12th, 2016 at 6:01 pm

Regulate the climate?: A new resource on the effects of regs

without comments

Advocates of the dangerous manmade global warming hypothesis call for regulations in response to their alarm. Assume for a moment that the alarmists’ feverish scenarios really were going to come to pass… would regulations make the situation better?

The Iron Law of Regulation suggests otherwise. For a new site from Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong that is devoted to experimental evidence on the effects of regulations, see IronLawofRegulation.com.

Written by admin

June 20th, 2016 at 7:34 pm

May 2016 sees temperatures climb down from El Niño peak

without comments

The May global average temperature was down by 0.16ºC from the previous month as the El Niño weather system weakened. The 0.55ºC May figure was nevertheless still warmer than the earlier, 2010, peak in temperatures. In other words, we have been experiencing the kinds of temperatures that the dangerous manmade warming alarmists have been warning would be harmful. We wonder how much additional net harm (i.e., after allowing for additional benefits) was caused by the warmer average temperatures over the last six or eight months?

For a larger view of the updated Climate Bet chart, click on the small chart to the top right of this page.

Written by admin

June 14th, 2016 at 11:08 am

April ’16: Another month warming Mr Gore’s bet hopes

without comments

Last month we noted that if temperatures remained at around the same level as they averaged for the first three months of 2016, Mr Gore could win the Climate Bet. The figure—global average temperature anomaly—was +0.7°C.

We didn’t fancy his chances given that the figure is a high for the satellite record and is associated with a strong El Niño weather pattern. The warmth bringing El Niño weather pattern is followed by cooling La Niña weather. One month on, however, the April 2016 figure turned out to be +0.71°C. We imagine Mr Gore must be overjoyed!

With 20 months of the 10-year bet to go, we still don’t fancy Mr Gore’s chances that 0.7°C temperature anomalies will continue. We’ll keep you posted.

 

Written by admin

May 10th, 2016 at 12:20 pm