The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘fudging and other adjustments’ Category

IUCN finds polar bear scientists’ models unsuitable for population prediction

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We imagine that Barbara Boxer will be particularly pleased that she did not respond to Professor Armstrong’s 2008 challenge to back her belief that the polar bear population was threatened with rapid decline by accepting his bet, based on scientific forecasting in Armstrong, Green, and Soon (2008), that polar bear numbers would remain at current levels or better.

It seems that modellers at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature agree with Armstrong, Green, and Soon that the models of polar bear biologist Steven Amstrup and colleagues, upon which Senator Boxer based her belief, are not fit for the purpose of forecasting the polar bear population. For more on this story see the article titled “Amstrup knows his polar bear predictions are flawed – but continues to promote them” on the polarbearscience.com site, here.

Is it possible that global warming is a political phenomenon?

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Wouldn’t it be strange if what counted as science was determined by the political ideologies of academics? Yet that is what an October 30 article in The New Yorker suggests.

Maria Konnikova’s article, here, describes the considerable evidence that  university academics, who control hiring and publication decisions, are so burdened by bias as to reject all evidence that conflicts with their predominantly left-liberal-internationalist ideology.

Perhaps that explains why the hypothesis of trend-less natural change in global mean temperatures is not widely accepted as being the most obvious and well-supported description of long-term climate among much of the academic community.

Written by admin

November 2nd, 2014 at 11:40 am

Are forecasts of a 2014 global temperature record believable?

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Based on NOAA figures for August 2014, Discover magazine posted an article online on September 19 with a headline making a dramatic forecast that, “With Summer’s Unequalled Warmth, 2014 is Likely to Finish as the Warmest Year on Record for the Home Planet“. AOL ran a piece on October 20 making the same forecast, this time backed with an extra month of NOAA data and the support of a claim by a NOAA scientist that “it’s pretty likely” that 2014 will see the global average temperature record broken… for the years since records began in 1880.

Climate scientist Roy Spencer begs to differ in his blog post titled “Why 2014 won’t be the warmest year on record“. Dr Spencer prefers the UAH satellite data record, pointing out that it, as opposed to NOAA’s adjusted and patchy thermometer data series, the satellite data provides a truly global and objective measure of temperatures. The Global Warming Challenge uses the UAH series as the measure for determining who will win the Armstrong-Gore bet for that reason.

We will post the outcome of the Spencer-NOAA conflicting forecasts when the data are finalised early in 2015.

Correction for drifting satellite increases Armstrong lead

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Adjustments to allow for a drifting satellite have found UAH temperatures to be flatter than previously estimated. As a consequence, Armstrong’s bet is safer than before. Gore’s forecast errors to date are 16% larger than the errors from Armstrong’s no-change forecast, and the no-change forecast of global mean temperatures has so far been more accurate than the Gore/IPCC forecast for 67% of the months covered by the bet. For the latest month (September 2012) and revised series, see the updated chart in the right column.

Written by admin

October 19th, 2012 at 8:49 am

Our View on the “ClimateGate” scandal: Why didn’t the mainstream media expose it years ago?

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Climategate is the opening up of a world that has been well known to scientists who are skeptical about the claim that we are faced with dangerous manmade global warming.

That world includes fudged data, refusal to disclose data and methods, removing evidence that challenges global warming dogma from Wikipedia entries, failure to cite disconfirming evidence in papers and IPCC reports, drawing conclusions that go beyond the data, violations of proper scientific procedures in collecting and analyzing data, ad hominem arguments, promulgation of alarming but unsupported forecasts, failure to correct errors that have been pointed out in the literature, uncivil behavior, disrupting scientific talks with protestors, directing government funds to those who subscribe to the dogma, providing government funds for research studies designed to support the dogma, putting out false or misleading “findings,” cancelling stories that had been scheduled for publication in newspapers, firing skeptics, death threats, and so on.

These are the signs of a dangerous political movement, not of a scientific issue.

Skeptical scientist have been telling editors in the popular media about the scandal of government sponsored climate science for years. Why have they been so reluctant to expose the scandal?

Other opinions on ClimateGate, some which seem sensible and others strange to us as scientists, are available from the New York Times, Glenn Beck, the Wall Street Journal, the London Telegraph.

Written by admin

November 28th, 2009 at 2:10 am

Climate science made easy: Please include this child’s lesson on the urban heat island effect in your next movie, Mr. Gore

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Here is evidence from a child’s science project that increased temperatures in the U.S. over the 2oth Century can be attibuted to the urban heat island effect, and not “global warming”. (Large cities cover only a tiny fraction of the area of the Earth.) I urge others to independently replicate and extend this school boy’s experiment and to report the results. The findings of the study also provide a solution for those who remain concerned about warming: Abandon the cities!

For an earlier discussion of this issue, see Steve McIntyre’s 2007 essay “Trends in Peterson 2003”.

Written by admin

October 12th, 2009 at 9:43 pm

UK Lawyer Slams Gore Over Court Case Claims

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Written by Ann McElhinney & Phelim McAleer

As appeared on The Climate Depot.

A leading UK lawyer, who represented the parent that sued Al Gore in the British High Court, has laughed off claims by the former vice-president that the judge ruled in his favour. Speaking from London John Day, a senior partner in Malletts Solicitors, said Mr Gore was misrepresenting what the judge had found. Mr Day represented a British parent who sued the UK Ministry of Education when they wanted to distribute and show Mr Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth to every British school child. Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

July 19th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

2008 International Conference on Climate Change: Green, Watts

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Track 2: Climatology (4:00-5:30pm)

Kesten C. Green, Ph.D.

International Graduate School of Business

University of South Australia

Scientific Forecasting and Climate Change

In connection with J. Scott Armstrong’s earlier talk on polar bear population forecasting, Kesten Green focused broadly on the scientific forecasting of climate change, and the forecasting principles that should be applied to better forecasts. As shown in the audit of Chapter 8 of the 2007 IPCC report, the work repeatedly “contravenes” key forecasting principles that have been established over 70 years of forecasting work shown to improve forecasting. Perhaps the overarching principle as applied to climate change is that one should be conservative when uncertainty is high, or choose to the naïve no-change model as Armstrong has done in his Global Warming Challenge. Public policy should be based on scientific forecasting, and Green referred to Monckton’s words “we should have the courage to do nothing.”

Anthony Watts
Chief Meteorologist, KPAY-AM Radio
Founder, SurfaceStations.org
A Hands-On Study of Station Siting and Data Quality Issues for the United States Historical Climatology Network

Anthony Watts introduced to the audience his work on documenting the inconsistencies of surface stations across the United States and the world – the same surface stations that measure local temperature. A wide variety of issues plague these surface stations, from the changing of paint used to coat the outside, to surface stations being placed on roofs, near sewage treatment plants, next to cars and air conditioners. Only 12% of these surface stations recorded so far have been placed in areas that meet all the guidelines. With nearly half of all the surface stations already documented and listed on the site surfacestations.org, the data from Watts’ work certainly puts the very measurement method under question.

Written by climatebet

March 7th, 2008 at 5:52 am