The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘conference’ Category

Tenth International Conference on Climate Change

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The Heartland Institute’s Tenth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC 10) took place in Washington D.C. on the 11th and 12th of June. Scott Armstrong presented a talk based on research with Kesten Green. Slides of their talk can be downloaded by clicking here. A flyer, summarising their evidence on climate forecasting, with links to relevant papers is available, here.

For this who missed the conference or would like to catch talks that they missed, videos of the ICCC 10 talks are now available online here. Scott gave his talk in a session with Anthony Watts and Roy Spencer. Video of their excellent session is here.

Armstrong and Soon at Doctors for Disaster Preparedness 31st Meeting

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Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon both spoke on long-term climate forecasting—Armstrong on temperatures and Soon on sea levels—on 13 and 14 July 2014 at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Meeting in Houston, Texas. Scott Armstrong’s talk was titled “Evidence-based forecasting for global warming” and the slides are available here. Willie Soon’s talk was titled “Five or more failed experiments in measuring global sea level change” and a video recording of it is available, here.

Both scientists describe how alarming forecasts have been derived for these poorly understood situations using complex mathematical models with many variables and judgmental adjustments. These procedures violate The Golden Rule of Forecasting, which requires forecasters to be conservative, especially in the presence of great uncertainty.

Written by admin

August 1st, 2013 at 8:01 am

Fun Climate Forecasting Quiz

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Test your climate forecasting skills: It’s anonymous, and fun!

Go straight to the Quiz on the page here, make your forecasts for the two 25-year periods offline, then check the outcome and grade your response here.

To learn about the latest developments in climate forecasting, read the draft paper by Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon from the recent International Symposium on Forecasting in Boston (June 2012). The link to the paper is here, and supporting materials are towards the bottom of the page.

Test Your Climate Change IQ

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Take this one-question quiz and see how well you can forecast global average temperatures (Available for download here) Read the rest of this entry »

Written by mzfeldm

February 19th, 2009 at 9:48 pm

Audio recordings now available for the International Conference on Climate Change

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On March 2-4 2008, more than 500 scientists, economists, and policy analysts from around the world met in New York City for the inaugural International Conference on Climate Change.  The audio recordings of all 103 presentations from all five tracks (paleoclimatology, climatology, impacts, economics, and politics) are now available on a 35-CD set. It is clear that there is no scientific consensus on the causes and consequences of climate change nor on the direction of the changes.

The complete set is available from The Heartland Institute for $119.
Call (312) 377-4000 to order, or use the online order form at