The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘al gore’ Category

March 2017 cooler than same month 10 years ago

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According to the UAH satellite measure of global temperatures the March anomaly, at 0.19°C, was down from the same month in 2007 (0.26°C), the base year of the Armstrong-Gore “Bet” on whether dangerous manmade global warming was a good forecast. Temperatures cooled during 2007, so the March anomaly, while down strongly from the previous month, is still slightly warmer than the average for the  2007 year, which was a little under 0.16°C.

On the basis of the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no change (no trend) forecast, Professor Armstrong bet that global mean temperatures during the ten years from 2008 to 2017 would be closer to the 2007 average than to the 0.3°C warming trend projected by the U.N. IPCC and Mr Gore’s alarming “tipping point” rapid rise in global temperatures.

To date, the average monthly signed error of Professor Armstrong’s forecast is -0.01°C. In other words, the no-trend forecast has been on the high-side as much as it has been on the low side of the actual global average anomaly. By contrast, Mr Gore’s IPCC stand-in projection has had an average monthly signed error of +0.15°C, which suggests a strong bias toward warming.

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April 17th, 2017 at 7:40 pm

February 2017 global average temperature gives Mr Gore’s chances a lift

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After 2 months that saw wins for Professor Armstrong’s bet on no long term change in global mean temperatures, the UAH estimate for February came in at 0.35°C. That was 0.1°C cooler than Mr Gore’s “bet” on the IPCC 3°C per century warming scenario, but 0.2°C warmer than Professor Armstrong’s forecast.

While Mr Gore’s bet had a run of wins recently—from October 2015 to November 2016—Professor Armstrong’s scientific no-change forecast has won 80 of the 110 months of the bet so far. So, while Mr Gore’s favoured dangerous manmade global warming scenario is looking more credible than it has done for almost five years, the scenario’s cumulative absolute forecast error to date is still more than 22% larger than that of the no-change forecast.

The Climate Bet now has only 10 months of its 10 year term to run.

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March 6th, 2017 at 11:53 am

May, then June, saw big falls in temperature anomalies

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From a global average anomaly of 0.71°C for April, temperatures dropped to 0.34°C for June 2016, two months later. The fall in average temperatures of 0.37°C is the largest two-month decline in the history of the Armstrong-Gore Climate Bet, and closely matches the record two-month increase of 0.38°C that occurred between December 2015 and February of this year.

Despite the rapid cooling, June was still relatively warm, and so the month counts as a win for Mr Gore. He needs temperatures to pick up again rapidly, and stay well up, if he is to have a chance of winning the bet, which ends at the end of next year. For the latest data and chart, click on the small chart to the top right of the page.

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July 12th, 2016 at 6:01 pm

April ’16: Another month warming Mr Gore’s bet hopes

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Last month we noted that if temperatures remained at around the same level as they averaged for the first three months of 2016, Mr Gore could win the Climate Bet. The figure—global average temperature anomaly—was +0.7°C.

We didn’t fancy his chances given that the figure is a high for the satellite record and is associated with a strong El Niño weather pattern. The warmth bringing El Niño weather pattern is followed by cooling La Niña weather. One month on, however, the April 2016 figure turned out to be +0.71°C. We imagine Mr Gore must be overjoyed!

With 20 months of the 10-year bet to go, we still don’t fancy Mr Gore’s chances that 0.7°C temperature anomalies will continue. We’ll keep you posted.

 

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May 10th, 2016 at 12:20 pm

Gore would win bet, if temperatures stay this warm

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While, after 99 months of the Climate Bet, Mr Gore’s forecast errors are 37% larger than Professor Armstrong’s, it is mathematically possible for Mr Gore to win. For that to happen, however, the global average temperature anomaly would have to stay around the average of the first three months of this year, +0.7°C. We will keep you posted!

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April 9th, 2016 at 1:57 pm

Five warmer months give bet hope for warmers

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We’ve had to adjust the Climate Bet chart to make room for the February 2016 UAH global average temperature anomaly of +0.83°C above the 1981-2010 average. For five months in a row now, Mr Gore and IPCC’s warming projection was more accurate than Professor Armstrong’s no-change-from-2007 forecast. The last time Mr Gore got such a run was in 2010, when the IPCC warming projection was more accurate for the first 10 months of the year.

Overall, however, the errors of IPPC projection are still as much as 40% larger than the errors from the evidence-based forecast of no change.

Mr Gore’s chances of winning the bet must, nevertheless, have improved with the latest figure. To put the data into perspective, if the temperature anomaly remained at or above .437°C for the last 22 months of The Bet—to the end of 2017—Mr Gore would win.

Perhaps Mr Gore will he change his mind and decide that he would like to put some of his own money at stake. He should be aware that the .437°C figure has only been equaled or beaten 7 times over the 98 months of The Global Warming Challenge to date, but that statistic will presumably carry little weight for those who, like Mr Gore, believe in the coming of a “tipping point”.

See the updated Climate Bet chart to the right.

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March 12th, 2016 at 10:12 am

Why theclimatebet.com uses satellite data – revisit

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In a recent (12 February 2016) article, Willie Soon, David Legates, and Christopher Monckton revisited the topic of measuring global temperatures and explained why satellite measurements are superior to terrestrial thermometer measures. For readers who would like a refresher on why it is that The Global Warming challenge adopted satellite temperature data as the criterion for judging the outcome of the Armstrong-Gore climate bet, see the Soon, Legates, and Monckton article “What do we know about CO2 and global atmospheric temperatures”, here.

Can’t look the other way on persistence of trend-less temperatures

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The prestigious Nature magazine on 24 February 2016 published online an article recognising the fact that (looking back) global average temperatures have been trend-less for at least the last 15 years. That’s right, Mr Gore, despite greatly increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the various measures agree that there is still no tipping point!

David Whitehouse, in a 26 February article in the U.K.’s The Spectator, suggested that Nature‘s article “ought to have been front page news – and might have been, had it suggested that global warming was worse than we had thought.” Whitehouse’s article, with link to the Nature paper, is available here.

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March 1st, 2016 at 9:30 pm

2015 ended on high note for Gore camp, but is it too-little too-late?

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The short answer is, most likely it is too late for Mr Gore to win the bet with Professor Armstrong. Here’s why…

Of the eight years of the bet so far, Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast has been been more accurate than the Gore/IPCC “dangerous” warming forecast in seven. Looking at individual months, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 72 of 96, or 75%. Overall, the errors of Mr Gore’s forecasts to date are nearly 42% larger.

To tip the balance of forecast errors back in Mr Gore’s favor, the temperature anomaly would need to average close to the Gore/IPCC +0.03ºC p.a. trend line shown in the updated chart to the right.

For those of you who arrived late or who would like a refresher, brief background to the Armstrong-Gore bet is provided at the link in the right column labelled “Challenge,” or here. (We recently extended the description of the background to the Challenge.)

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January 12th, 2016 at 2:26 pm

September 2015 sees continuation of temperature up-and-down

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The 93 months of the 120 month (10-year) Climate Bet so far has witnessed 45 months in which the global average temperature anomaly increased from the previous month, and 46 months in which the global temperature fell. This pattern, or lack of it, is of course consistent with the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) evidence-based no-change forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s notional bet with Al Gore. For the latest data, click on the chart to the right.