The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for the ‘al gore’ Category

No change in global average temperatures from July to August

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The UAH global average lower troposphere temperature anomaly remained unchanged in August 2019 from the previous month at 0.38°C. The month counts as the seventh win for Mr Gore out of the eight months of this year so far—the 44th win out of the 140 months of the extended bet, so far.

With no change in the average, it is interesting to observe to what extent the regional averages changed. Average temperature anomalies in the tropics fell from 0.61°C to 0.37°C over the land and rose from 0.40°C to 0.44°C over the sea. The corresponding figures for the northern polar region were a rise from 0.25°C to 0.53°C and a fall from 0.42°C to 0.33°C, and for the southern polar region were a fall from 0.86°C to 0.51°C, and a rise from 0.05°C to 0.38°C.

To see the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” chart summarising the progress of the Climate Bet so far, click on the graph on the top right of the page to see a larger version with data.

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September 19th, 2019 at 9:21 pm

A warmer start to 2019 sees January a winning month for Mr Gore

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At 0.37°C, the January 2019 anomaly was the highest since since December 2017. Just above the mid-point between the no-change from the 2007 average forecast of 0.159°C and the IPCC/Gore 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming forecast for January of 0.505°C, the month counts as a win for Mr Gore.

So far, the monthly wins tally stands at:

dangerous warming trend: 40 months
no trend (Armstrong):         93 months.

Over the course of the Bet to date, the dangerous warming forecast has never been the better forecast for as many as 40% of months. The no-trend, no need for policy action, forecast remains the best bet, having won just under 70% of months so far.

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February 12th, 2019 at 2:10 am

2018 year ends on a low note, temperature wise

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The UAH global mean temperature anomaly data for December 2018 is out: the figure of 0.25°C.

The average for the year was 0.23°C, with a maximum anomaly of 0.32°C and a minimum of 0.15°C. None of those figure is much different from the 2007 Bet base year average of 0.16°C, and are all well within the base year range of -0.04°C to +0.43°C.

Interestingly, in the now 11 years since 2007, monthly global mean temperature anomalies have fallen outside the 2007 range on only 32 of the 132 months, with nearly half of those months (15) falling below the 2007 minimum.

The 2018 year was cooler than any of the previous three years, and cooler also than 2010. In other words, 2018 was cooler than 40% of the previous ten years.

So how do things stand with the extended “Bet” between the no-change model forecasts and the IPCC’s 3°C-per-century “dangerous” warming projection (standing in for Mr Gore’s “tipping point” warnings)?

After 11 years, the Bet’s summary measure—the cumulative absolute error of the warming projection relative to that of the no-change forecasts—is 1.211. In other words, the errors of the “dangerous” warming projection have been 21.1% larger then the errors of the forecasts from a simple model that assumes that we do not know enough about the causes of climate change to make predictions over policy-relevant horizons that are more accurate than an extrapolation of the previous year’s average into the distant future.

Note also that unbiased forecasts would be expected be warmer than the actual temperature as often as they were cooler. To date, the actual temperature has been equal to or warmer than the IPCC/Gore projection for only 18.2% of months. That figure compares with the 40.9% of months that the temperature anomaly has been less than or equal to no-change projection.

For the latest data and chart summarising the Bet, click on the Whole-Earth Thermometer on the top right of theclimatebet.com site.

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January 7th, 2019 at 2:10 pm

September 2018 temperatures drift lower

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The UAH temperature anomaly for September was for the first time since July 2015 lower than the 2007 base year average that is the basis for the Climate Bet. With that latest dip in the global mean temperature, 42% of the 129 months of the extended bet period have seen temperatures lower than the base year average, which is also the no-change forecast proposed for the “Bet” by Professor Armstrong.

To put the 42% figure into context, consider that over a long period of time one would expect the actual temperature to be lower than an unbiased forecast about half of the time, and above it half of the time. While 42% is not 50%, contrast the figure with the percentage of months for which the actual temperature was greater than the Gore/IPCC global warming extrapolation of 0.3°C per decade… that figure is less than 19%.

With 111 months of the second decade of the bet remaining, the actual temperature would need to be below the 2007 average for 59.4% of months for the no-change forecasts to be counted as “perfectly” unbiased. For the dangerous warming forecast to be considered “perfectly” unbiased, actual temperatures would need to fall above the 0.3°C per decade trend line for 86.4% of months.

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October 6th, 2018 at 3:04 pm

July temperature update sees more of the same

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly was closer to the 2007 Bet base-year average that the IPCC-Gore warming projection again in July 2018. That has been the case  for every month of this year, so far. Note also that for more than 75% of the 127 months of the bet so far, the temperature anomaly has not been outside of the range of the 2007 monthly averages. The updated chart is available at the top right of this page.

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August 9th, 2018 at 3:01 pm

Are we living on a dangerously warming planet?

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The news keeps coming in from the New York Times and other media that there is no longer any doubt that the Earth is getting dangerous warmer. If you believe that to be true, there is nothing that we can say to change your opinion. Only you can do that. And to do so, you first need to address this question: “Could I imagine anything that could possibly change my mind?”

If so, you might be interested in the short article on WUWT titled “Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?“. It might provide the information you are seeking.

March 2018 cooler than same month of 2007 Bet base year

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Temperatures have drifted up and down since Mr Gore warned of a dangerous warming “tipping point” at the start of 2007, as they always have. Eleven years on, the temperatures recorded for the first 3 months of this year look remarkably similar to the first 3 months of 2007: 0.26°C, 0.20°C, and 0.24°C compared to 0.43°C, 0.19°C, and 0.26°C. See the updated chart to the right, and click for a larger image and table.

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April 14th, 2018 at 7:20 pm

Climate Bet starts a second 10 years with cooler month: January 2018

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With Professor Armstrong keen to put his evidence-based no-change forecast to the test for a further ten years, we have updated the Climate Bet chart with the 121st bet month of UAH lower troposphere data. January 2018’s global temperature anomaly was 0.10°C higher than the forecast of no trend in temperatures from the 2007 average, and 0.22°C lower than the “dangerous manmade global warming” Gore/IPCC +3°C per century extrapolation.

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February 28th, 2018 at 9:55 am

Tipping point 10 years on: Who won the Armstrong-Gore “bet” on the climate?

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The Challenge

In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong challenged former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the next 10 years. Professor Armstrong’s challenge was in response to Mr. Gore’s warning of a looming dangerous “tipping point” in temperatures. But when even scientists who are expert in a field make predictions about complex situation without using scientific forecasting methods, their forecasts have no value. The proposed $10,000 bet, then, was intended to draw attention to the need to assess the predictive validity of climate forecasts in an objective manner. Read the rest of this entry »

July 2017: Another unremarkable month for the global average temperature

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The  global mean temperature anomaly for the month of July 2017, as estimated by the UAH  climate scientists, was 0.29°C. If it weren’t for the cries of alarm about what Mr Gore and others speculate might happen, there would be little interest in this obscure and unremarkable measurement.

Mr Gore and the IPCC did raise the alarm, however, so here on theclimatebet.com site we will continue to monitor the performance of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s 3°C per century of warming projection relative to Professor Armstrong’s bet on scientific forecasting forecasting and the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-change model. With only 5 months of the ten-year notional bet left to run, the cumulative absolute error of the Gore/IPCC projection is 21% larger than the error of the scientific forecast.