The original Global Warming Challenge from Scott Armstrong to Al Gore was posted on this site in June 2007. With the original challenge deadline being on December 1, 2007, as of November 28th, 2007, the challenge was simplified and the deadline was extended to March 26th, 2008. March 26th passed, and Armstrong sent another letter to Mr. Gore, asking the key question: “When and under what conditions would you be willing to engage in a scientific test of your forecasts?”
Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School challenges Al Gore $20,000 that he will be able to make more accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be produced by climate models. Scott Armstrong’s forecasts will be based on the naive (no-change) model; that is, the forecasts would be the same as the most recent year prior to the forecasts. The money will be placed in a Charitable Trust to be established at a brokerage house. The charity designated by the winner will receive the total value in the fund when the official award is made at the annual International Symposium on Forecasting in 2018.
• Green & Armstrong paper: Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
• Official homepage of the challenge: IIF Public Policy Forecasting Site
For more about Professor J. Scott Armstrong, see his homepage.
Last updated April 9th, 2008.