The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

Correction for drifting satellite increases Armstrong lead

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Adjustments to allow for a drifting satellite have found UAH temperatures to be flatter than previously estimated. As a consequence, Armstrong’s bet is safer than before. Gore’s forecast errors to date are 16% larger than the errors from Armstrong’s no-change forecast, and the no-change forecast of global mean temperatures has so far been more accurate than the Gore/IPCC forecast for 67% of the months covered by the bet. For the latest month (September 2012) and revised series, see the updated chart in the right column.

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October 19th, 2012 at 8:49 am