Archive for September, 2009
Result for the first 20 months of the bet, to the end of August 2009, are shown in the graph below the globe image on the top right of this page. Gore has now lost 18 of the 20 months since the “bet” was announced.
Clicking on the graph shows a larger copy of the graph, including the data, in a separate browser window. Note also that, at the time of writing, the HubDub prediction market (shown in the second graph) gives Armstrong a 73% chance of winning the bet.
Theclimatebet.com will report monthly results on the climatebet, assuming that Mr. Gore took the bet. Professor Armstrong says it is all part to natural variation that occurs over time. He expects the scientific approach to forecasting will win in the long-run, so the longer the horizon, the greater the chance for Prof. Armstrong to win. Based on simulations of changes over the past 157 years, his chances of winning would be in excess of 62% for the ten-year horizon of the bet. On a monthly basis, he expects it to be slightly in excess of 50%. Mr. Gore believe that we cannot afford to wait because global warming is happening rapidly. Thus, he should find this monthly tracking to be of great interest. For purposes of the bet we assumed that Mr. Gore agreed with the IPCC forecast of 30C rise per century whereas Professor Armstrong forecast no change.