Archive for April, 2009
Gore avoids appearing with Lord Moncton at scheduled hearing by the U.S. House Energy and Commerce meeting on April 24. ‘House Democrats don’t want Gore humiliated’ according to the Climate Depot on Thursday. April 23, 2009.
Washington DC — UK’s Lord Christopher Monckton, a former science advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, claimed House Democrats have refused to allow him to appear alongside former Vice President Al Gore at high profile global warming hearing on Friday April 24, 2009 at 10am in Washington. Monckton told Climate Depot that the Democrats rescinded his scheduled joint appearance at the House Energy and Commerce hearing on Friday. Monckton said he was informed that he would not be allowed to testify alongside Gore when his plane landed from England Thursday afternoon. More…
Does the Wisdom of Solomon Extend to the Science of Forecasting?
by J. Scott Armstrong
SOLOMON ET AL. (2009) share their opinions with us about what will happen to the climate over the next 1,000 years. I am willing to accept that Susan Solomon and her coauthors are experts in their fields and that they are doing their best to provide useful long-term forecasts. For the purposes of discussion, let’s assume that they are the smartest people in the world and that, like King Solomon, they have great wisdom. But are their forecasts of any value? Evidence on the value of experts’ forecasts began to be published in the 1930s. I summarized the evidence in Armstrong (1978). When I found that people resisted the evidence, I proposed the seer-sucker theory: “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, seers will find suckers” (Armstrong 1980). Read the rest of this entry »