The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

Archive for February, 2008

Monckton’s Apocalypse? No! Speech provides audit of inputs to the dire predictions in An Inconvenient Truth

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It is important to ensure the data and judgments that are the inputs to a forecasting process are adequate, valid, and unbiased. Christopher Monckton, in his speech at the Cambridge Union in 2007, provided a point-by-point audit of the inputs to the predictions made by Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth. The speech, with question and answer session, is available on DVD from the Science and Public Policy Institute site.

Written by climatebet

February 29th, 2008 at 2:01 pm

2008 International Conference on Climate Change

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Kesten Green is giving a talk titled “Scientific Forecasting of Climate Change” at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, which is being held in New York City Marriott Marquis Times Square hotel from March 2 to 4. Sponsored by the Heartland Institute.

Global Warming: Crisis or Scam?

The debate over whether human activity is responsible for some or all of the modern warming, and then what to do if our presence on Earth is indeed affecting the global climate, has enormous consequences for everyone in virtually all parts of the globe. Proposals to drive down human greenhouse gas emissions by raising energy costs or imposing draconian caps could dramatically affect the quality of life of people in developed countries, and, due to globalization, the lives of people in less-developed countries too.

The global warming debate that the public and policymakers usually see is one-sided, dominated by government scientists and government organizations agenda-driven to find data that suggest a human impact on climate and to call for immediate government action, if only to fund their own continued research, but often to achieve political agendas entirely unrelated to the science of climate change. There is another side, but in recent years it has been denied a platform from which to speak.

The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change promises to be an exciting event and the point of departure for future conferences, publications, and educational campaigns to present both sides of this important topic.

Written by climatebet

February 27th, 2008 at 7:45 pm

Posted in kesten green

Roger Cohen gets taker on wager

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Warming skeptic gets taker on wager

February 22, 2008

| Herald Staff Writer

The Durango resident who stirred public debate with a $5,000 wager that the Earth’s average temperature in 2017 would be lower than in 2007 has an official taker – albeit to slightly different conditions.

Dr. Richard Grossman, a Durango gynecologist and obstetrician and occasional columnist for The Durango Herald, waited until the dust settled to work out conditions of the bet with Roger W. Cohen, who issued the challenge.

“I think part of Roger’s goal was to keep the issue of global warming in the public mind,” Grossman said Thursday. “It was certainly part of mine in accepting. I believe there is strong evidence of global warming and that much of it is caused by humans.”

Full article text available

Written by climatebet

February 23rd, 2008 at 12:16 pm

Posted in global warming

Scott Armstrong To Speak At American Enterprise Institute

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On Tuesday February 26th, 2008, Scott Armstrong will speak at a panel on the Strengths and Weaknesses of Climate Models, hosted by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington D.C. A summary of the event is available by clicking on, and full event details are available at the AEI website.

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Written by climatebet

February 18th, 2008 at 1:41 pm

Posted in j scott armstrong

Gore proposes new condition on climate forecasting challenge . . . Armstrong accepts and awaits a reply

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On June 19, 2007, Professor Armstrong proposed the Global Warming Challenge to Mr. Gore in an effort to stimulate a scientific approach to forecasting climate change. The Challenge asked that Armstrong and Gore each put $10,000 into a Charitable Trust Fund on December 1, 2007. Armstrong bet that over the next ten years he could forecast temperature change more accurately than any climate model that Mr. Gore might nominate. (Armstrong’s forecast would be that global mean temperature would not change over the ten years.)

On July 6, Mr. Gore sent a cordial reply stating that he was too busy. In response, on November 28, 2007, Dr. Armstrong extended the deadline to March 26, 2008, and made the task easier: Mr. Gore was asked merely to provide a checkmark beside a leading climate model and to sign his name.

Mr. Gore’s spokesperson replied on Armstrong’s answering phone on around February 5. The caller apologized for being so late for responding to the November 28 letter. She said, “Senator Gore declines.” No reason was given. She said to call if there were any questions. Attempts to reach her by phone failed despite leaving callback messages. Armstrong then contacted her by email with questions for Mr. Gore:

“You have made dramatic forecasts of a dire future and have asked people to make big sacrifices on the basis of those forecasts. I would be grateful if you would explain:

1. Why are you unwilling to back your forecasts in a challenge intended to promote scientific forecasting of climate change?

2. Under what conditions would you be willing to back your forecasts in a challenge against my forecasts from a simple scientific method that is appropriate in situations of high uncertainty: the naïve “no change” method?”

The spokesperson said that with respect to question #1, “Mr. Gore simply does not wish to participate in a financial wager.” Armstrong responded that it was fine by him and that we could “merely do it for its scientific value.” The spokesperson said that she would ask Mr. Gore. Armstrong asked if Mr. Gore would also respond to question #2.

The second question is of particular importance given that we have not been able to find any scientific forecasts to support global warming –or any that would support negative effects from global warming –or any to support the notion that efforts to reduce man-made CO2 would have a favorable impact on the climate. See Green & Armstrong’s paper “Global Warming: Forecasts By Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts,” Energy & Environment 18 (2007), 995-1019.

Armstrong said that this is a scientific issue, not a political issue. Opinion polls do not provide a scientific approach in this situation, even when some of the respondents are climate experts. However, procedures do exist that would allow us to make scientific forecasts.

Meanwhile, Professor Armstrong awaits Mr. Gore’s response to the revised challenge.

Written by climatebet

February 14th, 2008 at 9:14 pm

Q&A With Senator Boxer

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Below are excerpts from the Q&A session between Armstrong and Senator Boxer. Full Text of Examining Threats and Protections For the Polar Bear.

Senator Boxer. Now, Dr. Scott, you are a Ph.D. in what? Dr. Armstrong.

Mr. Armstrong. I went to MIT, so I basically had three areas, one was economics, the other was social psychology and the other was marketing.

Senator Boxer. Economics, social psychology and marketing. Are you a biologist?

Mr. Armstrong. No.

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Written by climatebet

February 8th, 2008 at 4:32 am

Yes, Virginia, there is a polar bear

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Yes, Virginia, there is a polar bear
Margaret Wente
Friday, February 01

Every eight-year-old knows the polar bears are drowning. “I feel sad for them,” said one friend’s kid the other day as he bundled up for school. Maybe he’d seen those TV ads featuring adorable baby bears with voiceovers by appealing children. “The ice is melting because of global warming,” lisps a little girl over pictures of polar bears apparently swimming for their lives. “Baby bears have died. Please help them.”

No one wants the polar bears to die. Obviously the grownups should do something – and so they are. A host of scientists, environmentalists, legislators and worried citizens is pressuring the U.S. government to add polar bears to the list of endangered species. A decision is expected soon, and they’ve got an impressive array of studies to back them up. One study forecasts that the melting of the Arctic sea ice could kill off two-thirds of the polar bear population by 2050 by destroying their habitat.

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Written by climatebet

February 6th, 2008 at 7:29 pm

Q&A With Senator Inhofe

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Below are excerpts from the Q&A session between Armstrong and Senator Inhofe. Full Text of Examining Threats and Protections For the Polar Bear.

Dr. Armstrong, when you were talking, this chart up here, first of all, did you say that you had a paper that you wrote in 1978?

Mr. Armstrong. I was writing books on long range forecasting then.

Senator Inhofe. You were writing books in 1978?

Mr. Armstrong. Well, I have been in this field for 48 years now.

Senator Inhofe. Wow. I thought maybe I heard wrong. You are the forecasting expert, I recognize that.

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Written by climatebet

February 6th, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Armstrong's testimony available on YouTube

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Below is Armstrong’s testimony from YouTube; it is approximately 6 minutes in length. Before you watch the video, please take this brief poll. Based on the image, what do you think will be the trend for the rest of the 21st century? Then, after watching the video, click to see Exhibit 3 found at the end of this post to see how Hunter et. al came to their conclusions.

exhibit11.png

I think the trend will be:
1) sharply upward
2) upward
3) slightly upward
4) hard to say
5) slightly downward
6) downward
7) sharply downward

View Results

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Yr5HxJTQAw]

Click here to see Exhibit 3. It shows the data used to estimate the key relationship.

Written by climatebet

February 5th, 2008 at 3:30 pm

Spiked Online: Bearfaced Lies?

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Decimation of the polar bear: bearfaced lies?
A leading expert in forecasting tells spiked that research into the impact of climate change on polar bears has been shockingly shoddy.
Tim Black

Despite the steady growth of the polar bear population over the past 40 years – it now stands between 20,000 and 25,000 – there is no shortage of doom-laden reports about the bears’ imminent demise on our warming planet. Some refer to polar bears as the ‘canaries of climate change’. Indeed, so strong is the misery-mongering about polar bears that the US is currently trying to list them as an endangered species; and its campaign has been aided and abetted by several pieces of US government-sponsored research into polar bear numbers. Yet according to experts in the field of forecasting methods, official rumours of the polar bear’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

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Written by climatebet

February 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pm