The Global Warming Challenge

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Results will be announced in the coming week.

All poll participants were entered into a random drawing for a signed paperback edition of Scott Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.

Click for the paper, “Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts”

Substantial revisions have been made in the paper thanks to additional peer review. The authors continue to work on further revisions and they seek further peer review, especially from those who might see shortcomings with the paper.

Thank you for thinking of Mr.Gore and inviting him to join you on June 27th. I apologize for the late response, but Mr.Gore has an extremely busy schedule and was not able to make it. I also read that you have a book called “Principles of Forecasting”, please feel free to mail that to Mr.Gore’s office at the address listed below. Thank you for understanding and good luck with everything in the future.

Sincerely,
Kathryn Ankner

Office of the Honorable Al Gore & Mrs. Tipper Gore
2100 West End Avenue
Suite 620
Nashville, TN 37203

Click through for Scott Armstrong’s reply.

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Scott Armstrong said that he selected ten years because he wanted to be pretty sure that he would be around to see how things turned out. Interestingly, this fits well with Gore’s position, as stated in his book, Assault on Reason (page 204):

“Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several “tipping points” that could – within as little as ten years – make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet’s habitability for human civilization.”

Scott Armstrong is still hopeful that Mr. Al Gore will join in the Global Warming Challenge to promote a scientific approach to forecasting climate change. Armstrong believes that they share many of the same objectives. Gore states in his latest book, The Assault On Reason:

“We must, for example, stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudostudies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public’s ability to discern the truth. Americans in both parties should insist on the reestablishment of respect for the rule of reason. The climate crisis, in particular, could cause us to reject and transcend ideologically based distortions of the best available scientific evidence.” p. 10

Gore, Al (2007). The Assault on Reason. New York: Penguin. ISBN 1594201226.

As one of our readers Tim Sandstrom commented, Scott Armstrong was live on the pH pHactor this morning in Bismarck, North Dakota. A link to this site is up on their page.

KFYR’s pH pHactor is hosted by Phil Parker and Jason Hulm, and airs Monday through Friday 5:30am-9:00am.

Dave Barton (davidtbarton at comcast dot net), a self-employed mechanical engineer in central Maryland, has offered to add another $5,000 to Armstrong’s Global Warming Challenge. In other words, Gore now has the option of accepting Armstrong’s original $10,000 challenge or the expanded $15,000 challenge.

Dave says that his portion of the winnings would be donated to the Washington Scholarship Fund. He agrees with Armstrong that the primary reason for the challenge is to encourage a scientific approach to climate forecasting. He said if we can accomplish that goal, it makes little difference if he loses. But he does not think he will lose.

Scott Armstrong’s challenge to Al Gore was mentioned in today’s Opinion Journal Political Diary (subscription only), which features commentary and analysis on US Politics by the Wall Street Journal.

Read up on the article by Taylor Buley below (reproduced with permission):

Weather Report

Al Gore thinks the climate crisis is so dire that he’s written a book, produced a movie and organized a world-wide music event to raise awareness. These have helped to make him a rich man, but is he willing to put his money where his mouth is? Don’t bet on it.

J. Scott Armstrong, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and expert on long range forecasting, has offered to bet Al Gore $10,000 that he can do a better job of predicting the future of climate change than the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose forecasts of rising temperatures are cited in virtually every media account. Mr. Armstrong and a colleague, Kesten Green of the University of South Australia, examined the IPCC’s work for last month’s 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting and found it essentially valueless according to established principles of forecasting. “Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder,” concluded the two.

So what’s Prof. Armstrong’s own climate prediction? No change at all. “The methodology was so poor that I thought a bet based on complete ignorance of the climate could do better,” says Mr. Armstrong. “We call it ‘the naïve model.’ Things won’t change.”

Professor Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting — the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods — and Principles of Forecasting, which was voted a “favorite book” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. If Mr. Gore accepts his challenge, Prof. Armstrong has proposed that each man put $10,000 into a charitable trust at a reputable brokerage house. The winner would then choose a charity to receive the total amount.

So far, Mr. Gore — usually quite the opportunist — has balked at the opportunity to establish credibility with global warming skeptics. “Please understand that Mr. Gore is not taking on any new projects at this time,” read a note to Mr. Armstrong from Mr. Gore’s communications director.

Green and Armstrong’s paper, “Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts” has gone through substantial revisions in the past several weeks. Got comments and suggestions?

Email: kesten at paradise dot net dot nz or armstrong at wharton dot upenn dot edu

Armstrong and Green’s work was featured in the Sydney Morning Herald’s July 7, 2007 article, “Chorus does not justify climate prophecies” by Michael Duffy:

The next week promises some excitement for those who believe global warming threatens our future. Today they can enjoy the Live Earth concert in Sydney. But on Thursday they will have to suffer ABC TV’s showing of The Great Global Warming Swindle, a British documentary sceptical of the orthodoxy…

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