Archive for the ‘al gore’ Category
With October 2013′s global mean temperature data in, we now have 70 months of evidence on the accuracy of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s alarming warming forecast of temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.03ºC per annum. If Mr Gore’s forecast were valid and unbiased, we would expect actual temperatures to be higher than his forecast roughly half of the time and lower roughly half of the time. We checked the record of The Bet. It turns out that, to date, the actual global mean temperature has been higher than Mr Gore’s forecast less than one-quarter (23%) of the time. By contrast, the measured temperature has been warmer than the no-change benchmark, Professor Armstrong’s bet, 46% percent of the time; very close to the ideal of 50%. The updated chart is to the right.
The September global temperature anomaly was the highest it’s been since January, and is close to Mr Gore’s “forecast” for the month. The balance of the bet remains firmly in Professor Armstrong’s favour, however: The error of the red-hot alarmist projection is to date nearly 20% higher than the error from the scientific cool-green no-trend forecast. See the updated chart (color coded) and table to the right.
At 0.16°C, the August 2013 global average temperature anomaly is again below the no-change forecast of 0.208°C. For the 68 months of the bet now behind us, the average temperature has been equal to or below the no-change forecasts for 38 months or 56% of the time. For the latest data and chart on the Armstrong-Gore climate bet, click on the updated chart in the column to the right.
We have belatedly updated the Armstrong-Gore bet graph, to the right. Those of you with keen eyes and good memories may notice some differences in the plot of the temperature series. The UAH global mean temperature anomaly series has been revised to Version 5.6. Information about the revision is available here.
With the release of the June figure, for the second time in 2013 Al Gore’s putative global mean temperature forecast was more accurate than the no-change forecast, .005°C more accurate.
The May 2013 data has been released and shows the monthly temperature anomaly was below the 2007 average that is the starting point of the Armstrong-Gore graph for the fourth month running. So far, the total error of Mr Gore’s warming forecast is 21% larger than the error of Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast. See the updated Climate Bet graph at right for the details.
It occurred to us that the bet would have been fairer to Mr Gore and the IPCC if we had used the data that were available to Mr Gore when he released his movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, during 2006, as the base-year for The Bet. (The base year that we use for The Bet, 2007, was the most recent data available when Professor Armstrong issued his challenge to Mr Gore.) And so we re-ran The Bet using the 2005 average (the latest full year available to Mr Gore when he released his movie) as the base year. Mr Gore’s forecast in the re-run is for a 0.03ºC p.a. increase from the 2005 average and Professor Armstrong’s is simply the 2005 average.
In the event, re-running The Bet from 2008 to date using 2005 as a base results in a total error for the Gore/IPCC alarming warming forecast that is 31% larger than the error of the no-change forecast. We think Mr Gore would likely prefer to stick with the current Bet arrangement, even though it is not as fair.
After spiking in January, temperatures in April were again well below the 2007 average that is Scott Armstrong’s forecast. (See the updated chart to the right for the state of the bet.) Over the duration of the 64 months to date of the bet, temperatures have been greater than Mr Gore’s IPCC-based warming forecast for 15 months or less than 23% of the time. In contrast, temperatures have been less than Professor Armstrong’s evidence-based forecasts for 36 months or more than 56% of the time. None of the forecasts was exactly equal to the actual temperature. The results support the contention that Mr Gore and the IPCC’s dangerous warming forecasts are insufficiently conservative given the state of knowledge about climate, and that the Green, Armstrong, and Soon (2009) no-change model provides a better representation of the considerable uncertainty that exists.
The latest, March 2013, global mean temperature data from UAH is now plotted on the Climate Bet Graph at right. The temperature anomaly was the same as it was in February and was again cooler than Scott Armstrong’s no-change forecast. Overall, Al Gore’s IPCC “bet” of warming of 0.03°C per annum has been 18% less accurate than the no-change forecast. Over the 63-month life of the bet to date, on the basis of cumulative absolute error, Al Gore’s alarmist forecast has been the better bet for the 8 month period ending January 2011 only.
Bob Carter, Willie Soon, and William Briggs describe the evidence that changes in radiation from the Sun are the major source of changes in the Earth’s climate in a new article in Quadrant. The claim may seem uncontroversial, but global warming alarmists argue that human emissions of carbon dioxide have such a big effect that they dominate solar changes and are inexorably and dangerously boosting global mean temperatures. The Climate Bet is a test of these hypotheses, with Scott Armstrong “betting” on unpredictable changes in solar radiation and Al Gore on CO2-induced warming… and you know how that has been going.
As we’ve written before, trends appear to emerge in the data, then reverse, on all timescales. January 2013′s relative warmth turned out to be a one-month spike, with temperatures in February again below the 2007 global average temperature. Since the first month of Scott Armstrong’s “bet” with Al Gore, the UAH monthly temperature anomaly has been cooler than the 2007 average for 34 out of the 62 months. In other words, to date 55% of months have been cooler
A jump in global mean temperatures of 0.3°C from December 2012 to January 2013 has helped to keep the bet alive as it enters the second lustrum of its 10-year term. To date, Professor Armstrong’s naive forecast has been more accurate for 40 months out of 61 and has been nearly 13% more accurate overall.