Archive for the ‘al gore’ Category
The average global temperature for the first quarter of 2014 was less than 0.01°C different from Professor Armstrong’s no-trend forecast. With 75 months of data now in, we wondered whether there was any evidence of bias in Professor Armstrong’s or Al Gore’s forecasts. We found that there was. Both Armstrong’s and Gore’s forecasts appear to have a bias toward forecasting temperatures that are warmer than the measured temperatures. In the case of Scott Armstrong’s no-trend forecasts, they have to date averaged 0.02C warmer than the recorded temperature. In the case of Al Gore’s IPCC alarming warming forecasts, they have averaged 0.12C warmer. We think policy makers should prefer less-biased forecasts. The updated Climate Bet graph is to the right.
With 74 months of the Armstrong-Gore bet behind us and 46 months left to go, global mean temperatures have gone nowhere. That, of course, is the no-trend forecast that is the basis of Professor Armstrong’s bet. Mr Gore on the other hand claimed temperatures would go up, dangerously. In fact, most months of the bet (57%) have seen temperatures flat or down from the previous month. Professor Armstrong’s conservative forecast has been more accurate than Mr Gore’s alarmist forecast for nearly 69% of months so far.
Unlike Al Gore, Nobel laureate Brian Schmidt is willing to bet on what global mean temperatures will be in 20 years time, presumably with his own money. Schmidt’s offer to bet was in response to Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s business advisor Maurice Newman’s skepticism over the IPCC’s alarming projections.
But reading on, Prof Schmidt, and the other warming alarmists who suddenly popped up saying “me too” are not so brave. As Jo Nova explains, they are only willing to bet that temperatures will be warmer, not that they will be dangerously warmer… they want the rest of us to pay for that bet.
Mostly down. In the course of the 72 months of the bet to date, the global mean temperature fell or remained flat compared to the previous month for 41 months, or 57% of the time. (In case you’re wondering, the UAH series records only 2 occasions over this period on which the temperature did not change from the previous month.)
We’re not sure how the ups-and-downs of the global temperature over these last six years accord with what Mr Gore had in mind when he issued his warning of an immanent and catastophic “tipping point”, but we know that his chances of winning the Climate Bet against the no-trend forecast proposed by Professor Armstrong have receded as the life of The Bet has progressed.
See the chart to the right with the latest (December 2013) data.
With eleven months of temperature data now in for 2013, it is highly unlikely that Mr Gore could win this, the sixth, year of The Climate Bet. For Mr Gore to win, the December global mean temperature anomoly would need to be substantially higher than any month so far in The Bet. Failing that unlikely outcome, the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is betting on will have been more accurate that Mr Gore’s IPCC-originated dangerous manmade global warming forecast for five of the first six years of The Bet.
With October 2013′s global mean temperature data in, we now have 70 months of evidence on the accuracy of Mr Gore and the IPCC’s alarming warming forecast of temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.03ºC per annum. If Mr Gore’s forecast were valid and unbiased, we would expect actual temperatures to be higher than his forecast roughly half of the time and lower roughly half of the time. We checked the record of The Bet. It turns out that, to date, the actual global mean temperature has been higher than Mr Gore’s forecast less than one-quarter (23%) of the time. By contrast, the measured temperature has been warmer than the no-change benchmark, Professor Armstrong’s bet, 46% percent of the time; very close to the ideal of 50%. The updated chart is to the right.
The September global temperature anomaly was the highest it’s been since January, and is close to Mr Gore’s “forecast” for the month. The balance of the bet remains firmly in Professor Armstrong’s favour, however: The error of the red-hot alarmist projection is to date nearly 20% higher than the error from the scientific cool-green no-trend forecast. See the updated chart (color coded) and table to the right.
At 0.16°C, the August 2013 global average temperature anomaly is again below the no-change forecast of 0.208°C. For the 68 months of the bet now behind us, the average temperature has been equal to or below the no-change forecasts for 38 months or 56% of the time. For the latest data and chart on the Armstrong-Gore climate bet, click on the updated chart in the column to the right.
We have belatedly updated the Armstrong-Gore bet graph, to the right. Those of you with keen eyes and good memories may notice some differences in the plot of the temperature series. The UAH global mean temperature anomaly series has been revised to Version 5.6. Information about the revision is available here.
With the release of the June figure, for the second time in 2013 Al Gore’s putative global mean temperature forecast was more accurate than the no-change forecast, .005°C more accurate.
The May 2013 data has been released and shows the monthly temperature anomaly was below the 2007 average that is the starting point of the Armstrong-Gore graph for the fourth month running. So far, the total error of Mr Gore’s warming forecast is 21% larger than the error of Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast. See the updated Climate Bet graph at right for the details.
It occurred to us that the bet would have been fairer to Mr Gore and the IPCC if we had used the data that were available to Mr Gore when he released his movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, during 2006, as the base-year for The Bet. (The base year that we use for The Bet, 2007, was the most recent data available when Professor Armstrong issued his challenge to Mr Gore.) And so we re-ran The Bet using the 2005 average (the latest full year available to Mr Gore when he released his movie) as the base year. Mr Gore’s forecast in the re-run is for a 0.03ºC p.a. increase from the 2005 average and Professor Armstrong’s is simply the 2005 average.
In the event, re-running The Bet from 2008 to date using 2005 as a base results in a total error for the Gore/IPCC alarming warming forecast that is 31% larger than the error of the no-change forecast. We think Mr Gore would likely prefer to stick with the current Bet arrangement, even though it is not as fair.