The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for December, 2018

“…new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change show humans are not causing a climate crisis”

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A new 1,000-page report titled Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change was presented on December 4 in Katowice, Poland. (In case you missed it, Katowice is where the many delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change gathered from far and wide to argue for climate alarm.)

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels assesses the costs and benefits of the use of fossil fuels (principally coal, oil, and natural gas) by reviewing scientific and economic literature on organic chemistry, climate science, public health, economic history, human security, and theoretical studies based on integrated assessment models (IAMs). It is the fifth volume in the Climate Change Reconsidered series and, like the preceding volumes, it focuses on research overlooked or ignored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The chapters of the report are:

Part 1: Foundations
1. Environmental Economics
2. Climate Science

Part II: Benefits of Fossil Fuels
3. Human Prosperity
4. Human Health Benefits
5. Environmental Benefits

Part III: Costs of Fossil Fuels
6. Air Quality
7. Human Security
8. Cost-Benefit Analysis

A press release, Summary for Policymakers, the report itself as one large file, and individual chapters are available to download from the NIPCC site, here.

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December 7th, 2018 at 2:15 pm

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November 2018 temperature data, and the UAH trend

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The November lower troposphere global temperature anomaly from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) team is just out, is little different from recent months, and remains close to the 2007 average that is the base-year of The Climate Bet.

The UAH series now covers nearly 40 years of monthly observations. Over that time, the change in the global average temperature from month to month has been quite small: the absolute change has averaged a little less than 0.1°C, with half warmer than the previous month, and half cooler.

Despite the obvious up-and-down nature of the series, some commentators continue to look for evidence of a trend hiding in the noise of monthly and annual volatility. For example the IPCC’s, business as usual 3°C-per-Century should be evident in 40 years of data if it amounted to a real trend.

Followers of the IPCC would presumably be pleasantly surprised, then, to learn that the trend to date amounts to little more than 0.001°C-per-month; less than 1.3°C-per-Century. In other words, from month-to-month the typical up or down change is in the order of a 100 times larger than the “trend.”

If the well-hidden trend happened to continue for a further 60 years, we should be reassured that it is much closer to the no-change forecast than to the dangerous warming scenario. There continues to be neither reason to worry, nor reason for governments to implement expensive programmes and regulations.

For the updated “Whole-Earth Thermometer” reading, click on the small chart to the top right of the page for a more detailed image.

Written by admin

December 5th, 2018 at 2:35 pm