The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for October, 2018

“DataGate” – The official temperature series from Hadley audited

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From time to time we explain on this site why we use the fully disclosed and audited University of Alabama satellite reading derived lower troposphere temperature series for adjudicating the progress of The Climate Bet. And now the temperature data that are relied upon by the IPCC and policy makers around the world have been audited.

“Thanks to Dr John McLean, we see how The IPCC demands for cash rest on freak data, empty fields, Fahrenheit temps recorded as Celsius, mistakes in longitude and latitude, brutal adjustments and even spelling errors…

There are cases of tropical islands recording a monthly average of zero degrees — this is the mean of the daily highs and lows for the month. A spot in Romania spent one whole month averaging minus 45 degrees. One site in Colombia recorded three months of over 80 degrees C.”

For more on Dr McLean’s report documenting the unreliability of the Hadley Centre’s data, see Jo Nova’s blog entry, here.

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October 11th, 2018 at 10:47 am

September 2018 temperatures drift lower

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The UAH temperature anomaly for September was for the first time since July 2015 lower than the 2007 base year average that is the basis for the Climate Bet. With that latest dip in the global mean temperature, 42% of the 129 months of the extended bet period have seen temperatures lower than the base year average, which is also the no-change forecast proposed for the “Bet” by Professor Armstrong.

To put the 42% figure into context, consider that over a long period of time one would expect the actual temperature to be lower than an unbiased forecast about half of the time, and above it half of the time. While 42% is not 50%, contrast the figure with the percentage of months for which the actual temperature was greater than the Gore/IPCC global warming extrapolation of 0.3°C per decade… that figure is less than 19%.

With 111 months of the second decade of the bet remaining, the actual temperature would need to be below the 2007 average for 59.4% of months for the no-change forecasts to be counted as “perfectly” unbiased. For the dangerous warming forecast to be considered “perfectly” unbiased, actual temperatures would need to fall above the 0.3°C per decade trend line for 86.4% of months.

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October 6th, 2018 at 3:04 pm