The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for February, 2016

Spikey temperatures: Despite January warmth, spikes have been more cool than warm

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The UAH global average temperature anomaly spiked in January to the warmest it has been during the 97 months of the bet so far. We have seen similar spikes earlier in the bet period, in early 2010 and January 2013. All three of those spikes were (just) more than 0.3°C warmer than the 2007 annual average, which is the base year of the bet and the no-change forecast that Scott Armstrong is betting on.

The three spikes amounted to 5 months in all of temperatures more than 0.3°C warmer than the 2007 annual average.

A glance at the updated chart (right) shows that there have also been downward spikes in the UAH global average temperature during the period of the bet. In fact there have been six cool spikes amounting to 8 months of temperatures more than 0.3°C cooler than the 2007 annual average.

Not only have warm spikes been less frequent than cool spikes, in the context of the bet the cool spikes have been relatively cooler than the warm spikes have been warm. The average cool-spike temperature was .02°C cooler than the 2007 annual average than the average warm-spike temperature was warmer.

Written by admin

February 24th, 2016 at 4:00 pm