The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for January, 2015

Who is more accurate, the global coolers or the global warmers?

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Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong tested the predictive validity of the United Nations’ IPCC global warming hypothesis of +0.03°C per year due to increasing CO2 against the relatively conservative hypothesis of natural global cooling at a rate of -0.01°C per year. The errors of forecasts from the global warming hypothesis for horizons 11 to 100 years ahead over the period 1851 to 1975 were nearly four times larger than those from the global cooling hypothesis.

Forecasts from the no-change model, however, were substantially more accurate again than those from the global cooling hypothesis. Findings from their tests covering a period of nearly 2,000 years support the predictive validity of the no-change hypothesis for horizons from one year to centuries ahead (Green and Armstrong, 2014). A pre-publication draft of their “Forecasting global climate change” chapter is available, here.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2014). Forecasting global climate change. In Moran, Alan (ed.). Climate Change: The Facts 2014, pages 170-186. Published by the Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia.

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January 28th, 2015 at 3:02 am

Global temperatures: Seven years of Sideways

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It may be hard to believe with the rhetorical bombardment of the warming alarmists and their supporters in the media that we are exposed to, but global average temperatures over the last seven years averaged less than the 2007 base year of the Armstrong-Gore bet. Yes, you did just read that!

The average of the monthly temperature anomalies in 2007—as calculated by the University of Alabama at Huntsville scientists from satellite observations—was 0.21°C. The average for the seven years since then was 0.20°C.

That doesn’t seem like a tipping point, Mr Gore!

The updated graph, to the right, shows not a tipping point, but lots of turning points. The net result? You guessed it, a sideways drift that is just what followers of this site and the evidence-based Green, Armstrong, and Soon no-trend forecast would expect.

New Book “Climate Change: The Facts 2014”

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The Institute of Public Affairs have published a collection of works on the physics, economics, and the politics of climate change (a.k.a. the alarm that dangerous manmade global warming is and will continue to occur.) The 21 chapters by leading researchers and commentators include Willie Soon’s “Sun shunned”, and Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong’s “Forecasting global climate change”. The book is available, here. We suggest sending Mr Gore a copy.

Update: Kindle versions of Climate Change: The Facts 2014 are now available on Amazon. Either search for the title or click the link to the book on your country’s Amazon site from the following list: US, UK, CA, AU, DE, FR, ES, IT, NL, JP, BR, MX, IN.

Environmentalist predictions gone wrong

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A small pleasure of the passing of time is that another batch of unscientific long-term predictions comes to full term and are exposed for what they always were: worthless. Fox News’s Maxim Lott has this New Year provided the service of reminding us of “Botched environmental predictions for 2015”. The first of the list is “UN overestimated global warming by 2015”. Another treat is “Arctic sea ice will disappear by 2015”. Maxim Lott’s article is available here.

There seems to be an endless supply of unscientific environmentalist alarms, as the Global Warming Analogies Forecasting Project has identified, here. Why? In part because forecasters of environmentalist catastrophes ignore the Golden Rule of Forecasting and assume that things are different now. In other words, they ignore cumulative knowledge about the situation they are making forecasts about, and about forecasting, in order to make extreme predictions. For more information on the Golden Rule of Forecasting, see If you don’t have the time to check out the Golden Rule, remember to treat forecasts of dramatic unprecedented changes in the same way you would treat last week’s newspaper horoscope.

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January 3rd, 2015 at 6:30 am