The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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2015 ended on high note for Gore camp, but is it too-little too-late?

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The short answer is, most likely it is too late for Mr Gore to win the bet with Professor Armstrong. Here’s why…

Of the eight years of the bet so far, Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast has been been more accurate than the Gore/IPCC “dangerous” warming forecast in seven. Looking at individual months, the no-change forecast has been more accurate for 72 of 96, or 75%. Overall, the errors of Mr Gore’s forecasts to date are nearly 42% larger.

To tip the balance of forecast errors back in Mr Gore’s favor, the temperature anomaly would need to average close to the Gore/IPCC +0.03ºC p.a. trend line shown in the updated chart to the right.

For those of you who arrived late or who would like a refresher, brief background to the Armstrong-Gore bet is provided at the link in the right column labelled “Challenge,” or here. (We recently extended the description of the background to the Challenge.)

Written by admin

January 12th, 2016 at 2:26 pm