Archive for December, 2014
IUCN finds polar bear scientists’ models unsuitable for population prediction
We imagine that Barbara Boxer will be particularly pleased that she did not respond to Professor Armstrong’s 2008 challenge to back her belief that the polar bear population was threatened with rapid decline by accepting his bet, based on scientific forecasting in Armstrong, Green, and Soon (2008), that polar bear numbers would remain at current levels or better.
It seems that modellers at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature agree with Armstrong, Green, and Soon that the models of polar bear biologist Steven Amstrup and colleagues, upon which Senator Boxer based her belief, are not fit for the purpose of forecasting the polar bear population. For more on this story see the article titled “Amstrup knows his polar bear predictions are flawed – but continues to promote them” on the polarbearscience.com site, here.
With November data in, 2014 looks warmer than 2013, but much cooler than 2010
Looking only at the nearly 7 years of The Climate Bet, with one month of 2014 to go any talk of record warmth looks to be a big stretch. For the average temperature anomaly for 2014 to exceed the relatively warm 2010 average, December’s anomaly would need to come in at an unprecedented 2°C or higher. We think Mr Gore and the IPCC should not count their chickens before they’ve hatched. For the latest graph and numbers on the Bet, see the updated chart to the right.
