Archive for December, 2013
A summary of the critique of the use of complex mathematical models for forecasting long term climate change by Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon is published in the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science (2013).
The reference is as follows, and links to the relevant section and to the entire NIPCC report are available from the Global Warming Audit pages of the forecastingprinciples.com site, here.
Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2013). Global climate models and their limitations: Model simulation and forecasting – Methods and principles. pp. 14-17 in Idso, C. D., Carter, R. M., & Singer, S. F. (Eds.), Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science. Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute.
With eleven months of temperature data now in for 2013, it is highly unlikely that Mr Gore could win this, the sixth, year of The Climate Bet. For Mr Gore to win, the December global mean temperature anomoly would need to be substantially higher than any month so far in The Bet. Failing that unlikely outcome, the no-change forecast that Professor Armstrong is betting on will have been more accurate that Mr Gore’s IPCC-originated dangerous manmade global warming forecast for five of the first six years of The Bet.