The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for August, 2013

Talks on climate forecasting from Doctors For Disaster Preparedness Conference

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The Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Conference in Houston (July 12 to 15 2013) featured several talks related to the dangerous manmade global warming alarm, including one from theclimatebet.com’s Professor Scott Armstrong. A video of his talk, “Evidence-Based Forecasting for Global Warming”, is available here. Willie Soon’s talk, “Five or more failed experiments in measuring global sea level change”, is available here, and Antony Watts’s talk, “Ten tests to determine whether you should be concerned about global warming” is available here.

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August 17th, 2013 at 1:29 am

Cool July: Temperatures, they are a-changin’… back

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The global average temperature anomaly was below the 2007 average again in July 2013 after a warmer June. Does the average temperature seem to go up-and-down a lot to you? Well, it turns out that the correlation between the change in the average monthly temperature and the change in the previous month is negative (-0.3) over the period relevant to the climate bet, 2007-to-date. In other words, an increase in the monthly temperature anomaly tends to be followed by a decrease the next month, and vice versa. As folks (and the no-change forecast) say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The latest Climate Bet chart is posted to the right.

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August 7th, 2013 at 12:37 am

Armstrong and Soon at Doctors for Disaster Preparedness 31st Meeting

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Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon both spoke on long-term climate forecasting—Armstrong on temperatures and Soon on sea levels—on 13 and 14 July 2014 at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Meeting in Houston, Texas. Scott Armstrong’s talk was titled “Evidence-based forecasting for global warming” and the slides are available here. Willie Soon’s talk was titled “Five or more failed experiments in measuring global sea level change” and a video recording of it is available, here.

Both scientists describe how alarming forecasts have been derived for these poorly understood situations using complex mathematical models with many variables and judgmental adjustments. These procedures violate The Golden Rule of Forecasting, which requires forecasters to be conservative, especially in the presence of great uncertainty.

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August 1st, 2013 at 8:01 am

Revised temperature series and June 2013 temp

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We have belatedly updated the Armstrong-Gore bet graph, to the right. Those of you with keen eyes and good memories may notice some differences in the plot of the temperature series. The UAH global mean temperature anomaly series has been revised to Version 5.6. Information about the revision is available here.

With the release of the June figure, for the second time in 2013 Al Gore’s putative global mean temperature forecast was more accurate than the no-change forecast, .005°C more accurate.

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August 1st, 2013 at 6:37 am