The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for June, 2013

Perhaps it would have been fairer to Mr. Gore…

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The May 2013 data has been released and shows the monthly temperature anomaly was below the 2007 average that is the starting point of the Armstrong-Gore graph for the fourth month running. So far, the total error of Mr Gore’s warming forecast is 21% larger than the error of Professor Armstrong’s no-change forecast. See the updated Climate Bet graph at right for the details.

It occurred to us that the bet would have been fairer to Mr Gore and the IPCC if we had used the data that were available to Mr Gore when he released his movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, during 2006, as the base-year for The Bet. (The base year that we use for The Bet, 2007, was the most recent data available when Professor Armstrong issued his challenge to Mr Gore.) And so we re-ran The Bet using the 2005 average (the latest full year available to Mr Gore when he released his movie) as the base year. Mr Gore’s forecast in the re-run is for a 0.03ºC p.a. increase from the 2005 average and Professor Armstrong’s is simply the 2005 average.

In the event, re-running The Bet from 2008 to date using 2005 as a base results in a total error for the Gore/IPCC alarming warming forecast that is 31% larger than the error of the no-change forecast. We think Mr Gore would likely prefer to stick with the current Bet arrangement, even though it is not as fair.

Written by admin

June 6th, 2013 at 1:41 am