The Global Warming Challenge

Evidence-based forecasting for climate change

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Archive for March, 2013

Changes in the Sun mean changes in the climate

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Bob Carter, Willie Soon, and William Briggs describe the evidence that changes in radiation from the Sun are the major source of changes in the Earth’s climate in a new article in Quadrant. The claim may seem uncontroversial, but global warming alarmists argue that human emissions of carbon dioxide have such a big effect that they dominate solar changes and are inexorably and dangerously boosting global mean temperatures. The Climate Bet is a test of these hypotheses, with Scott Armstrong “betting” on unpredictable changes in solar radiation and Al Gore on CO2-induced warming… and you know how that has been going.

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March 14th, 2013 at 12:19 am

Temps drop below 2007 bet benchmark again in February 2013

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As we’ve written before, trends appear to emerge in the data, then reverse, on all timescales. January 2013’s relative warmth turned out to be a one-month spike, with temperatures in February again below the 2007 global average temperature. Since the first month of Scott Armstrong’s “bet” with Al Gore, the UAH monthly temperature anomaly has been cooler than the 2007 average for 34 out of the 62 months. In other words, to date 55% of months have been cooler

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March 11th, 2013 at 11:44 pm

A flicker of hope for Mr Gore’s bet with the new year

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A jump in global mean temperatures of 0.3°C from December 2012 to January 2013 has helped to keep the bet alive as it enters the second lustrum of its 10-year term. To date, Professor Armstrong’s naive forecast has been more accurate for 40 months out of 61 and has been nearly 13% more accurate overall.

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March 1st, 2013 at 11:09 am